Here Today... Gone To Hell!

Hey dudes,
Lets use this thread to post any hot stock tips, 401k questions/thoughts/ideas, share articles on $$$ or any other financial musings or thoughts you may have....

Nice rally to close the day  : ok:

The shorts were scrambling to cover their butts today me thinks, tomorrow will be another blood bath.

 :o



Honestly, I'd love to have a thread where we talked about stocks, investing etc. I would highly recommend that NOBODY uses it as investment advice however.

Invest into symbol WPKS.

Forget WPKS, I still think WKRP is set for a rebound.

On a serious note, Citigroup has to be looking pretty good right now.

Damn.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=WPKS.PK

Not sure, i wanted to get me some C a few days ago, but I think they'll dip again.

tomorrow is 50/50 - we going to see a sell off of todays gains or another rally?  its so freaking unstable.

-----agree with TAINTS, please nobody base your 401k off this thread ;)

lets get some system down, if mentioning a new fund or stock, state the name followed by the symbol.  For example:

Citigroup (C)

This thread is going to RULE

my little brother is a genius - he said to get circuit city (CC) a few days ago.  I didn't.

check out their last 5 days.  I think they've had 30-40% growth.

Sick.

I don't think CC is good for the long term though.

(http://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/steve_bell/2008/01/23/bell.jpg)

ok questions, since my bank hasn't answered them and iasked a month ago :

Do you have to buy a minimum quantity when you want to buy oil ? I heard of a 1000 barrils as minimum, is it true ?

And what about Gold ?

But still, it's been up n' down for a while, and from what I've been hearing within our company, the stock is gonna rise sky high.

not sure to be honest.  i'm sure a quick search online could give you your result?

why buy oil! terrible for the environment.  Go Green.  big money in green stocks 20-30 years from now.  invest now!!

if you have a vested interest in a stock (like you work for the company) please supply full disclosure.  helps to know peoples positions on a stock when they are giving advice on it. 

Everyone should do his/her own research of course.

Well, if you've read some of our press releases that you can find online, that we're at the starting point of our deal in China (1). We're going into 210 hotels, and we get the whole second floor to do something like an entertainment center, but more so like a VIP poker room, we're also trying to work and get slot machines into the picture also.

Just last Saturday, we gave away another $10,000 direct buy in seat at the main event of the WSOP in Las Vegas, this hasn't been released yet, but some of our previous winners have been anounced (sp) (2). In April of 2007 we announced our launch into Amsterdam (3) with stores and our poker league being filmed and shown on Dutch TV, but of course, there was a couple set backs, but Marcel Luske is in good spirits about it, seeing as he is the one who bought the licence for the WPS European market.

Also, in June we signed 6 poker pros to our Advisory Board (4), Phil Hellmuth is one of the six, and was seen on the cover of Card Player magazine with our logo on his hat, coat and shirt(5). Here is a picture of him at the table with our coat(6).

And we're thinking of new ventures almost daily, recently we've been working with Bar owners in Rice Lake, Wisconsin to bring our Bar Poker League to them, and thusfar it's going good - we haven't started games there yet, but do run other games in the state of Wisconsin. Recently, a guy from Sweden was in our store, and was interested in opening two stores, one in Basil, and one in Zurich. He's been in contact, but I don't know if anyone has had time to meet with each other.

Oh keep in mind, I'm no one major to the company - I'm just one of store managers son. Who happens to have some stock. lol.

(1) http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/071106/0324066.html
(2) http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/070212/0213841.html
(3) http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/070418/0240202.html
(4) http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/070627/0271834.html
(5) http://img179.imageshack.us/img179/7421/60571mw8.jpg
(6) http://img525.imageshack.us/img525/1013/4677706db9a69hz0.jpg

That brings up ethics to the table. I have chosen not to buy into some funds because they had holdings in Haliburton.

Anybody consider the companies, from an ethical standpoint when they buy into a fund?

i def do.  yes, i want to make money, but its not like i'm going to be rolling in it.  i'm not investing that much (yet). just getting my feet wet.  i believe its possible to make some cash and still stand by my convictions.  I wouldnt' want to give a dime to big oil, big pharm or anything related to Bush Co.

Soci?t? G?n?rale uncovers ?3.7bn fraud by rogue trader

A rogue trader has cost French bank Soci?t? G?n?rale ?4.9bn (?3.7bn) in the biggest fraud in financial history.

News of the fraud, which will virtually wipe out 2007 profits at France's second-largest bank, sent shockwaves through European markets, already battered by the escalating credit crisis.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/jan/24/creditcrunch.banking (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/jan/24/creditcrunch.banking)




/jarmo

Now Bush can blame the recession on the French when he announces his 'freedom' stimulus  : ok:

well, im sure the french are pissed at him for taking there french fries away and replacing them with freedom fries!

Halliburton is not the only oil exploitant of the planet.

And yes, i will not buy anything Bettancourt close or far ( like Loreal) because they funded the Nazis.

nice day today - thought i'd see more red to be honest.

Ag stocks seemed to do awesome. 

C just keeps rocking out - WHY DIDN'T I PICK ANY UP!

What did I tell ya?  Pardon me, I have to get back to my bubblebath filled with many beautiful ladies.   :peace:

i dont' know, still hesitant to pick some up - I don't think the financials are out of the water yet.  plus i'm pissed its gone up so much and would hate to buy now and see it go back down.  so far patience has worked well for me.

the market volatility has def made me gun shy, I wanted to load up on MVL over the past few days but decided not too.  I think Google (GOOG) would have been a good buy when it was at 530.

Microsoft (MSFT) had great earnings.  Tech should do REALLY well tomorrow.  But, I heard there is a housing report on Monday, that could sink everything. 

I can tell you right now, that housing report won't be good.  :hihi:

agreed.  i'm going to hold off on doing anything till after that.  i think it'll be a good buying opportunity.  prob not as good as the other day, but still a nice dip.

So, I guess the question is...do you think that the rate cut, and the stimulus plan will help the economy?

Personally, I think it's too little too late.

I don't know - the rally yesterday really gave me some hopes.  Financials were being bought up like crazy along with retail, two sectors I thought would be in the shitter.

but all its going to take is one bad housing report or something to put it all back in a shit storm.

its too early to tell.  i'm more optimistic than I was before though.

I think the rate cut may help banks and those looking to refinance. But the rest of the package - fuggetabodit. I know the Feds are going to make another cut probably next week. I am actually going to refi my mortgage from this whole mess because I believe I will be able to get a better rate.

Now is the time to buy property if you can afford. Have several friends in real estate and sellers who are so desperate, they are lowering the price of their houses to the same they bought it for and real estate friends are willing to give up half or more of their commission just to make a sale. So, anyone telling you that houses are still unaffordable - don't believe it - most people will do whatever they can to sell their house and anyone looking to buy should get an excellent deal.

Also, I would totally go with green stocks if I am going to buy. Green and health care industry are the two forevers I see continuing into the future. I don't think you can go wrong.

I get stock tips from the Motley Fool. Does anyone else check out this website?

They usually have great tips although I am afraid to do it. My husband works at the BOT and he keeps telling me I don't know what I'm doing thus the reason for my reluctance. He trades futures and some bonds and I still don't know what the hell futures are. When you guys want to invest in something what do you normally do? Do you all have a broker? Or do you know a place to go where you don't have to pay any fees to anyone? I've researched this some and only find brokers. Does anyone have a brokerage they recommend? One that is reasonable in their fees?

I can not disagree more, and that is coming from a real estate guy.

Why? If you get a fixed rate loan and no adjustables. Why do you say that?

Prices are going to go down for a while IMO. The last house I sold, about 9 months ago was purchased with one of those subprime ARMs. The deal was so lousy, I even told the buyer they should wait. Told them to get their credit better and I could personally design my next house to suit their needs. She insisted, and at the end of the day, it's none of my business. That ARM won't reset for three years. Right after that loan went through, those types of loans dried up. So, IMO we've got about 2-3 more years of resets outstanding. As they reset, foreclosures and shortsales are usually the next step, which drive prices down.

Low rates, may just go lower, but they sure aren't going to go higher, not for a long time. Prices will continue to drop, as inventory is at record highs.

And that couple I sold to less than a year ago? Already losing the house. Which will eventually bring down the comps in this neighborhood. I've got a desperate guy around the corner that has his house listed 30k lower than mine, and it's still sitting. If that sells, and then the foreclosure becomes final, that's now how much my house is worth per sq ft. That scenario is happening all over the country.

I wouldn't buy anything for at least two more years. Any "Hurry up before the deals are gone" is just like the stupid realtors saying "Hurry up before you're priced out of the market forever." It's all driven by fear.

Myself? I listen to economists, not salesmen. I'm going to refi my house for 15 yrs and stay put, watch the dust settle and see what my next move is. I don't advise anybody to buy.

It is a good point. So, you are saying that if a house in your hood sells for the foreclosure price which is usually pretty cheap, then all houses in that area are essentially worth the same amount since that was the price it sold for? And, you are also saying that anyone should wait because the prices will go even lower over the next two years?



Also, I read an article over the weekend about vice stocks and how they are the best to invest because even in bad times people don't quit smoking or drinking or watching porn. And the prices weren't bad. I think the highest stock was at like $67 a share and that's not bad. I wish it was in the $40 range but I am considering purchasing these stocks.

Comparable sale prices are what appraisers use to find the value of a home. Foreclosures and short sales are driving the prices down. In essence, the same people (speculators) who drove the prices up, are driving them down. Right now, it makes much more financial sense to rent than it does to buy. At least for a few years anyway. Remember, your home is NOT an asset, it is not the "biggest investment" of your life, it is a liability. I am absolutely saying prices will go lower, yes.

As far as stocks go, economists all agree that index funds are the way to go. If you want to buy individual stocks there is a lot to learn before pulling the trigger. Index funds don't require a broker or high mgt fees that eat away at your profit over the long haul.  If you want to lose a lot of money, then follow the latest trends (which means it's already over in my book) and buy into it. If you want growth, which still requires reading, and educating yourself, then go with index funds.

The strong take from the weak, and the smart take from the strong. Which one do you want to be?

I invested a little money in Coke (KO).  Good recession stock and just a great brand overall.  I like the dividend too.  Its kinda low right now too (not sure why) so now could be a good time to buy. 

Taints is on point though - index funds are much less riskier and still have good returns.

Fed cuts rates by half point!!!

My prediction: The street will rally up for a while, and then come back down, just like last time.

Nice time to refi though.

RETIREMENT PLANNING FOR 2008

If you had purchased $1000.00 of Nortel stock one year ago, it would now be worth $49.00.

With Enron, you would have had $16.50 left of the original $1000.00.

With WorldCom, you would have had less than $5.00 left.

If you had purchased $1000 of Delta Air Lines stock you would have $49.00 left

But, if you had purchased $1,000.00 worth of beer one year ago, drank all the beer, then turned in the cans for the aluminum recycling REFUND, you would have had $214.00.

Based on the above, the best current investment advice is to drink heavily and recycle.

It's called the 401-Keg Plan

tap, that's classic!  did you come up with that on your own...be honest!

no. it's a cut and paste.

look for ebay to rally the next few weeks. its getting its house n' order, plus goog my buy it...

What is 401K?


 :peace:

It's a financial vehicle that allows you to put money you earn at work directly into investments.  The cool part...it's pre-tax money.  All of the earnings you make off your investment are not taxed.  The only time you're taxed on your deposits is when you withdraw your money at retirement time.  But, the really cool part is that you aren't taxed on your financial gains, even upon withdrawal time at retirement.

Hey, I just wanted to give a shout out to all the parents out there too.  529 plans are an excellent way to save for higher education costs (which seem to be rising at an alarmingly fast rate).   :peace:

http://www.upromise.com/

Thanks. That sounds like our supperannuation


 :peace:

Smeared today.......jeez.  :nervous:

I got most of my money out a few days ago.  I still got coke and marvel - sooo long on coke, i don't care whats going on these days, and marvel SHOULD jump for me in May.  i might pick up some more long stocks like citibank tonight.

I've got my evening gown on and am staying all night, fuck it.

I'd hate to have Bear Stearns stock right now.  Imagine if you'd worked there forever and were banking on your options for retirement?  Unreal.

I hope citi isn't next  :nervous:

I'm playing it safe. I got 5.25 on 1 year CDs, and that is looking real good right now. It ain't earning much, but it is guaranteed.

If you're diversified and long term, I think you'll be ok.

but for right now, 5.25 return isn't too bad, especially in this market  :-\

I think after Enron, they say never have more than 10 percent or so in company stock.

This week will be interesting to watch. The fed will pump more cash into the system and JP Morgan has officially bought out Bear Stearns for two dollars a share.

I'm buying all the way to the bottom, but I think we are a long ways off. The good news is that there will eventually be a bottom.



I'm at -11.5% so far, last year I came in around 18%.

If you want to depress yourself even further you could add on fees and inflation, which would put my loss around -15%.... :hihi:

I'm down 5% right now, but most of my positions are long term.  I get dividends from most of my stocks so I hope they will ease the pain a little bit.  My ROTH IRA is in the toilet, but that is SUPER long of course.

really hoping Iron Man and Hulk make big bucks at the box office - I have the most $ invested in MVL.

Punk, whats your money in?  11% in this market is awesome!

DOW futures down 224
Nasdaq futures down 41
S&P futures are down 28

I will not look at the return now (too much), but rather the price I am buying the stock at, all the way down.

smart - I'm dumb like that, i buy all at once at a price i think is good instead of buying in increments.

(http://allfunny-stuff.com/pics/nerds/nerds-3.jpg)

Asian markets tanking.

Today is going to be one to watch...

where the hell are you getting that? 5.25% in this market is incredible. i'll take 5.25% guaranteed on a 1-year investment anyday. back in 2005 i put money in CDs at 5% for 2-years. i wish i had put more in.

i max out my 401K and IRA, invest in 529 plans, buy mutual funds, and GE stock. i screw around with some other stocks in my scottrade account, but nothing major. if i'm gonna gamble, i stick to things i enjoy like sports and blackjack.  :hihi:

my cash is in a money market account earning 3%.

I'm surprised nobody has said anything about what's going on today, guess everybody is making whoopie in the Prez thread 'eh?

Gotta wonder if some of those Bear Stearns guys are half way into a bottle of scotch by now? 85 yrs and closing up shop. Lehman Bros down 37%, but claiming they don't have liquidity problems. You know these other big boys have to have shitty books (smelly subprime) just like Stearns. Very interesting to see their reports come out this week, BS said they were fine just last week, and look what happened.

I came across some cash a while back before the "shit hit the fan", and through it in CDs in a small bank until I figured out what I was going to do with it. I then kind of forgot it ... didn't want to be hassled with it.

just a few months ago, literally a few months ago, i was getting 5% on my savings account (e-savings rules!).

now all of the online savings accounts are in the mid 3%

fucking blows.

got hammered today. brutal.

How does JPMorgan pull off buying Bear Stearns for $236 million when Bear's net assets are worth $11 billion?  Wouldn't the shareholders have been better off with getting their piece of the $11B in a bankruptcy fire sale?  Apparently JPMorgan will immediately turn around and sell $5-6 billion of those assets.  Not bad.

So, the economy is in a recession, the dollar sucks dick, home values are plummeting, unemployment and inflation are on the up, but JPMorgan makes $5 billion over the weekend.  Maybe their CEO should be running for president.  

This reminds me a little of the dot com bubble burst....so when does the Dow get kicked back south of 10,000?  Nasdaq south of 1500?  S&P south of 1000?  Oh well, diversify and ride it out.  That's what axl4prez says.  :)

keep buying on the way down (if you have the cash).  i'm putting a lot into my Roth each month that goes by and we're still in the crapper. 

We SHOULD be back up in a year or two.

I would not be surprised to see the bottom at 8000.

I think we should pool our extra funds here at HTGTH and bid up AXL.  What better way to celebrate our favorite lead singer?  Here's the company's profile: 

American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, engineering, design, and validation of driveline and drivetrain systems, and related components and chassis modules for automotive industry in the United States. The company's driveline and drivetrain systems include components that transfer power from the transmission and deliver it to the drive wheels. These products comprise axles, chassis modules, driveshafts, power transfer units, transfer cases, chassis and steering components, driving heads, crankshafts, transmission parts, and metal-formed products. It offers these products for light trucks, sport utility vehicles, passenger cars, and crossover vehicles. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Detroit, Michigan.

Does anybody here own a piece of AXL?  AXL's 52 week high is up over 31, but is now just under 21/share.  I wonder if Axl owns any AXL.   :D

8000?  Wow.  Invest now, 12000 to 8000 is a 33% drop.  Buy in at 8000, with a rise to 12000, there's a 50% rise!  The lure of easy money.  Reminds me of my Worldcom money.   :crying:  Oh well, a buddy of mine has a bunch invested in DOC.  Poor guy's been putting money in that for a couple years...his money's disappearing.  :'(

I expect to see heavy jumping volume through the week...but that's just me.

They did the stock price @ 2 rather than go bankrupt, which would mean fat cats returning their hefty bonuses. Which is fucking bullshit if you ask me. Then the government turned around and guaranteed that JPMorgan won't take a hit for assuming Bear's messy obligations, which is a bailout. Pisses me off. Once again, Joe Six Pack gets the screw job, while crooks come down nice n easy in their gold parachutes.

Socialized medicine is bad, but tax payers ponying up billions to bail out crooks on Wall Street while retirement funds get blasted is perfectly fine. If we had proper regulation this shit wouldn't happen.


"As of March 31 2007, the New York State and Local Retirement System owned 453,385 shares of Bear Stearns stock at a cost of $34,443,043 or $75.97 and a valuation at that date of $68,850,650 or $145.24 per share."

http://www.solari.com/blog/?cat=4

Reverse-socialism at its finest.

By the way, Spitzer would have fought for that NYS retirement fund tooth and nail, but he's gone now, what a coincidence.  Sorry, but since pollux has apparently retired as resident conspiracy theorist, we all now have to contribute our share.

It's ok for banks to go under, that's free market. Banks have collapsed before and the economy goes on.

Now the government is going to buy all these crappy subprime loans on top of it all? Unreal. So we bail out Wall Street, and the sub prime mess (except the home owners.) But socialized medicine is bad idea, wouldn't want people to have the most fundamental human necessity provided to them huh?

There is one private organization called NACA that is doing something for the people stuck in subprime loans. The CEOs idea is that by stopping foreclosure, we can help ease the credit bubble and save neighborhoods at the same time. That if people are 30 yr fixed (good) rates, they will pay them back, rather than walk. Essentially his group underwrites these loans under prime (4.75) for 30 yr notes, and then gets big banks to put up the money (Citi, BOA etc.) It's actually an amazing, non profit program, that requires some service work on behalf of the people he is helping.

It is a joke isn't it?  I'm supposed to feel bad for these guys?

Meanwhile, the citizen who was smart and didn't buy a house they couldn't afford and put their money in an e-savings account earning 5.05% has now seen that drop down to 3.50%.

real fucking fair.  but thank god jonny wall st. gets bailed out.

seriously.  Using the good ol' "Law of 72," with a 5.05% yearly rate of return, your money will double in 14.26 years.  When it's 3.5%, make it 20.57 years!  I don't know what the rate of inflation is right now, but judging by what I'm paying at the grocery store and at the gas pump, it seems to be higher than it was, no?  Keep saving and dollar-cost averaging I guess.

its insane how expensive regular day to day things have gotten.  yet some how the rich get richer and us Joes keep scraping by...

Inflation is at it's highest point in almost 20 yrs (if I remember correctly.)

Pumping more fed money into the machine doesn't help the value or inflation either.

Yep, and they keep cutting rates. The pigeons are coming home to roost, and they are going to shit all over everything.

Dow at 8000-9500, housing prices plummet for next several years? I don't think it's a stretch.

IMO there are plenty more dirty book holders like Stearns, and we are just starting to see the problems on Wall Street. Some talking heads are trying throwing around "bottom", but so have the realtwhores for months now. This isn't going to sort itself out that quick folks, sorry.

I talked to Mortgage brokers all the time over the last several years, and the shit they did (and talked openly about) was down right fraud. We've got millions of liar loans out there that still have to reset for 2-3 more years. If they take the risk why should we bail their sorry asses out? I guess corporate welfare is just fine, huh?

I kick myself in the ass everytime I think about not buying those maple leafs and eagles when they were at 5 last year.

I feel the same way about Bud Fox's Magic Member Cream (ticker symbol COX), it's gone up nearly 50% since the IPO.

 :no:

How is his ass cream doing?

He told me your misuse voided the warranty again, is that true?

Did she now?

My oh My , she is a mean she devil. God i love thee fair wentch.

you post got me searching for good rates. i found some banks that offer checking accounts that pay 6% or more. no fees. no minimum balance. FDIC.

they all require 10+ debit card transactions a month. that's probably how they make their money (visa fees). unless they are lending cash to columbian drug lords. 

this is a good site...

http://www.money-rates.com/rewardschecking.htm

www.bankrate.com is another good site with TONS of information/rates.

I'm watching my friends buy high and sell low.

Don't panic! Especially with retirement funds!!

It's not a loss or gain until you sell it.

Get on the phone and short American Airlines now!

 :hihi:

Im bout to come into 27,000 dollars.

I thought of investing it

Any advice?

I am a complete novice with this stuff.

Jesus man. PM me would you.

You can loose that real quick listening to bad advice.

I'm serious, PM me.

D - not sure what your situation I would do one or a combo of the following:

1. buy a place - 27k is a nice down payment, real estate (as a place to live for a long period of time, not to flip) is always a sound investment.

2. throw it into a mix of savings account, long term CDs and mutual funds and ETFs

3. PM SLC ;)

Well I'm not trying to be a pig about this, or be too pushy.... People just have no idea of how fast you can blow 30k. I've seen people blow through it and have nothing to show for it, such a shame.

You can take my advise or leave it. But especially at your age, you have a leg up on older guys like me: time. Time for interest to compound and make you more money. Frankly most younger guys (in their 20s) don't take my advice, probably because it ain't too sexy. Tax deferred savings? Index funds? Work hard? Who wants to do that?!?!?

agree w/ you 100%.  that's all great advice.

D, Let's be serious here.  We could use this money to bribe Axl to get the albums out!   :hihi:

I like what SLC and Hil-Dog had to say.  You'll do the right thing.   :yes:

"Be afraid when everyone else is being greedy and be greedy when everyone else is afraid."

Warren Buffet

Buffett's outlook....

Do you think the U.S. financial markets are losing their competitive edge? And what's the right balance between confidence-inspiring standards and ...

... between regulation and the Wild West? Well, I don't think we're losing our edge. I mean, there are costs to Sarbanes-Oxley, some of which are wasted. But they're not huge relative to the $20 trillion in total market value. I think we've got fabulous capital markets in this country, and they get screwed up often enough to make them even more fabulous. I mean, you don't want a capital market that functions perfectly if you're in my business. People continue to do foolish things no matter what the regulation is, and they always will. There are significant limits to what regulation can accomplish. As a dramatic illustration, take two of the biggest accounting disasters in the past ten years: Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. We're talking billions and billions of dollars of misstatements at both places.

Now, these are two incredibly important institutions. I mean, they accounted for over 40% of the mortgage flow a few years back. Right now I think they're up to 70%. They're quasi-governmental in nature. So the government set up an organization called OFHEO. I'm not sure what all the letters stand for. [Note to Warren: They stand for Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight.] But if you go to OFHEO's website, you'll find that its purpose was to just watch over these two companies. OFHEO had 200 employees. Their job was simply to look at two companies and say, "Are these guys behaving like they're supposed to?" And of course what happened were two of the greatest accounting misstatements in history while these 200 people had their jobs. It's incredible. I mean, two for two!

It's very, very, very hard to regulate people. If I were appointed a new regulator - if you gave me 100 of the smartest people you can imagine to work for me, and every day I got the positions from the biggest institutions, all their derivative positions, all their stock positions and currency positions, I wouldn't be able to tell you how they were doing. It's very, very hard to regulate when you get into very complex instruments where you've got hundreds of counterparties. The counterparty behavior and risk was a big part of why the Treasury and the Fed felt that they had to move in over a weekend at Bear Stearns. And I think they were right to do it, incidentally. Nobody knew what would be unleashed when you had thousands of counterparties with, I read someplace, contracts with a $14 trillion notional value. Those people would have tried to unwind all those contracts if there had been a bankruptcy. What that would have done to the markets, what that would have done to other counterparties in turn - it gets very, very complicated. So regulating is an important part of the system. The efficacy of it is really tough.

At Piccolo Pete's, where he has dined with everyone from Microsoft's Bill Gates to the New York Yankees' Alex Rodriguez, Buffett sat at a table with 12 Whartonites and bantered over many topics.

How do you feel about the election?

Way before they both filed, I told Hillary that I would support her if she ran, and I told Barack I would support him if he ran. So I am now a political bigamist. But I feel either would be great. And actually, I feel that if a Republican wins, John McCain would be the one I would prefer. I think we've got three unusually good candidates this time.

They're all moderate in their approach.

Well, the one we don't know for sure about is Barack. On the other hand, he has the chance to be the most transformational too.

I know you had a paper route. Was that your first job?

Well, I worked for my grandfather, which was really tough, in the [family] grocery store. But if you gave me the choice of being CEO of General Electric or IBM or General Motors, you name it, or delivering papers, I would deliver papers. I would. I enjoyed doing that. I can think about what I want to think. I don't have to do anything I don't want to do. It might be wonderful to be head of GE, and Jeff Immelt is a friend of mine. And he's a great guy. But think of all the things he has to do whether he wants to do them or not.

How do you get your ideas?

I just read. I read all day. I mean, we put $500 million in PetroChina. All I did was read the annual report. [Editor's note: Berkshire purchased the shares five years ago and sold them in 2007 for $4 billion.]

What advice would you give to someone who is not a professional investor? Where should they put their money?

Well, if they're not going to be an active investor - and very few should try to do that - then they should just stay with index funds. Any low-cost index fund. And they should buy it over time. They're not going to be able to pick the right price and the right time. What they want to do is avoid the wrong price and wrong stock. You just make sure you own a piece of American business, and you don't buy all at one time.

When Buffett said he was ready to pose for photographs, all 150 students stampeded out of the room within seconds and formed a massive line. For the next half hour, each one took his or her turn with Buffett, often in hammy poses (wrestling for his wallet was a favorite). Then, as he started to leave, a 77-year-old's version of A Hard Day's Night ensued, with a pack of 30 students trailing him to his gold Cadillac. Once free, he drove this Fortune writer back to his office and continued fielding questions.

How does the current turmoil stack up against past crises?

Well, that's hard to say. Every one has so many variables in it. But there's no question that this time there's extreme leveraging and in some cases the extreme prices of residential housing or buyouts. You've got $20 trillion of residential real estate and you've got $11 trillion of mortgages, and a lot of that does not have a problem, but a lot of it does. In 2006 you had $330 billion of cash taken out in mortgage refinancings in the United States. That's a hell of a lot - I mean, we talk about having $150 billion of stimulus now, but that was $330 billion of stimulus. And that's just from prime mortgages. That's not from subprime mortgages. So leveraging up was one hell of a stimulus for the economy.

If that was one hell of a stimulus, do you think the $150 billion government stimulus plan will make an impact?

Well, it's $150 billion more than we'd have otherwise. But it's not like we haven't had stimulus. And then the simultaneous, more or less, LBO boom, which was called private equity this time. The abuses keep coming back - and the terms got terrible and all that. You've got a banking system that's hung up with lots of that. You've got a mortgage industry that's deleveraging, and it's going to be painful.

The scenario you're describing suggests we're a long way from turning a corner.

I think so. I mean, it seems everybody says it'll be short and shallow, but it looks like it's just the opposite. You know, deleveraging by its nature takes a lot of time, a lot of pain. And the consequences kind of roll through in different ways. Now, I don't invest a dime based on macro forecasts, so I don't think people should sell stocks because of that. I also don't think they should buy stocks because of that.

Your OFHEO example implies you're not too optimistic about regulation.

Finance has gotten so complex, with so much interdependency. I argued with Alan Greenspan some about this at [Washington Post chairman] Don Graham's dinner. He would say that you've spread risk throughout the world by all these instruments, and now you didn't have it all concentrated in your banks. But what you've done is you've interconnected the solvency of institutions to a degree that probably nobody anticipated. And it's very hard to evaluate. If Bear Stearns had not had a derivatives book, my guess is the Fed wouldn't have had to do what it did.

Do you find it striking that banks keep looking into their investments and not knowing what they have?

I read a few prospectuses for residential-mortgage-backed securities - mortgages, thousands of mortgages backing them, and then those all tranched into maybe 30 slices. You create a CDO by taking one of the lower tranches of that one and 50 others like it. Now if you're going to understand that CDO, you've got 50-times-300 pages to read, it's 15,000. If you take one of the lower tranches of the CDO and take 50 of those and create a CDO squared, you're now up to 750,000 pages to read to understand one security. I mean, it can't be done. When you start buying tranches of other instruments, nobody knows what the hell they're doing. It's ridiculous. And of course, you took a lower tranche of a mortgage-backed security and did 100 of those and thought you were diversifying risk. Hell, they're all subject to the same thing. I mean, it may be a little different whether they're in California or Nebraska, but the idea that this is uncorrelated risk and therefore you can take the CDO and call the top 50% of it super-senior - it isn't super-senior or anything. It's a bunch of juniors all put together. And the juniors all correlate.

If big financial institutions don't seem to know what's in their portfolios, how will investors ever know when it's safe?

They can't, they can't. They've got to, in effect, try to read the DNA of the people running the companies. But I say that in any large financial organization, the CEO has to be the chief risk officer. I'm the chief risk officer at Berkshire. I think I know my limits in terms of how much I can sort of process. And the worst thing you can have is models and spreadsheets. I mean, at Salomon, they had all these models, and you know, they fell apart.

What should we say to investors now?

The answer is you don't want investors to think that what they read today is important in terms of their investment strategy. Their investment strategy should factor in that (a) if you knew what was going to happen in the economy, you still wouldn't necessarily know what was going to happen in the stock market. And (b) they can't pick stocks that are better than average. Stocks are a good thing to own over time. There's only two things you can do wrong: You can buy the wrong ones, and you can buy or sell them at the wrong time. And the truth is you never need to sell them, basically. But they could buy a cross section of American industry, and if a cross section of American industry doesn't work, certainly trying to pick the little beauties here and there isn't going to work either. Then they just have to worry about getting greedy. You know, I always say you should get greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy. But that's too much to expect. Of course, you shouldn't get greedy when others get greedy and fearful when others get fearful. At a minimum, try to stay away from that.

By your rule, now seems like a good time to be greedy. People are pretty fearful.

You're right. They are going in that direction. That's why stocks are cheaper. Stocks are a better buy today than they were a year ago. Or three years ago.

But you're still bullish about the U.S. for the long term?

The American economy is going to do fine. But it won't do fine every year and every week and every month. I mean, if you don't believe that, forget about buying stocks anyway. But it stands to reason. I mean, we get more productive every year, you know. It's a positive-sum game, long term. And the only way an investor can get killed is by high fees or by trying to outsmart the market.

Quoted for D.

SLC - can you PM me some good financial advice you've been told and learnt over the years?

Don't buy any GE stock.

A share is worth less now than it was in  2001.

2001 was about the peak price for GE wasn't it?

My dad owns a ton of GE, has been buying it since the early 70's.  :o

It was in the $70 range a share in `01. Its about $5 less now. Nothing huge, but as far as trends go it doesn't look like a winner.

You know, this is so funny.

Since I turned that job down yesterday.  :hihi:

The guy was shocked.

GE peaked at around $150 in 2000 and did a 3 to 1 stock split.  it's been in the $30s for most of the time since then.

despite the earnings issues and bad press for its Iran dealings, i think it's still a great buy. with the quarterly dividends it's like investing in a mutual fund.

Dividends are a great part of the GE stock. I think GE is always a solid buy myself.

High Oil Prices? You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet

Posted Apr 16, 2008 12:39pm EDT by Aaron Task in Newsmakers, Commodities


Charles Maxwell is known as the ?Dean of Energy Analysts,? following decades working on Wall Street and for Mobil Corp. before the XOM deal. As global oil consumption rises and oil production peaks and ebbs, prices will shoot higher ? a lot higher, says Maxwell, senior energy analyst at Weeden & Co. in Greenwich, Conn.

Maxwell forecasts $180 oil by 2015, and $300 a barrel by 2020. And at those prices, could rationing be far off in the future? Plus, check in with Tech Ticker later to get Maxwell?s take on smart oil investing plays as oil reaches the bottom of the barrel.

$1.16.9/L here in Napanee, Ontario :(

dividends rule.

nice day for some of my stocks today.

Nuthin sexy, but worth a watch (http://www.yahoo.com/s/860235)

This is also worth watching. A closer look at Alt A loans. Some eye opening facts about the mortgage crisis, and what is around the bend.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmeBSWI9sF8

This guy is sharp and full of information, check out his blog:

http://mrmortgage.typepad.com/blog/

To me, this spells even bigger trouble on the horizon.

Stock market shows signs the bull is back

NEW YORK ? Just five months after raising a bearish warning flag, one of Wall Street's oldest tools used to predict the longer-term direction of stocks is back in the bullish camp.
Dow Theory, a market-forecasting system devised more than 100 years ago by Wall Street Journal editor Charles Dow, is signaling that the primary trend of the market, which turned down in November, is pointing up again.

In a nutshell, Dow Theory turns bullish when the Dow Jones industrial average, a proxy for U.S. manufacturing, and the Dow transportation average, made up of companies that ship goods, move in tandem and bust out above prior significant highs.

"The message," says Richard Moroney, editor of Dow Theory Forecasts newsletter, "is stocks are headed higher. It makes sense to listen to the primary trend."

The concept is simple: If shares of companies that make stuff are going up at the same time as stocks that deliver the goods from the factories to consumers, it is a sign of economic health.

Friday, the Dow industrials soared 229 points to 12,849, topping their recent high of 12,743 set on Feb. 1. The strength in the industrials confirmed the earlier breakout by the transports, which rallied 2.3% Friday to a fresh 2008 high of 5100. Stocks were lifted by better-than-expected first-quarter profit reports.

The bullish signal, however, comes at a time when the economy is still slowing, the housing market is still in a funk and further fallout from the credit crunch is still a real worry. Those same worries drove stock prices sharply lower in early March before rebounding.

However, it is not uncommon for stocks to start moving higher before the worst of the economic clouds have passed, says Richard Russell, who has edited Dow Theory Letters newsletter for 50 years.

"All news is history," Russell says. "What's important in this business is not so much the news ? but the market's reaction to the news."

The latest Dow Theory buy signal has Russell in a bullish mood. He believes the stock market lows hit in January will mark the trough for the year. And he expects the Dow industrials to make new all-time highs.

If stocks continue to rise, Russell says, the market could benefit from a buying surge by the record number of investors now betting on stock prices falling. The reason: If they are forced to reverse those negative bets and start buying stocks, prices could jump sharply. "A market that refuses to head down is a potentially explosive market," he says,

But just because Dow Theory has turned bullish, don't expect the Dow to hit new highs, counters Richard Suttmeier, chief market strategist at RightSide.com. The credit crunch and recession will keep a cap on gains, he says. The best investors can expect? "Maybe we can poke above Dow 13,000," he says.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/markets/2008-04-20-dow-theory-buy-signal_N.htm

Bullish?

Dunno 'bout that one.

me either - things will slip again, i don't think we'll start to see a true rebound until after the summer, deep into the fall.  We've had some good days due to some kick ass earnings reports, but I don't think its anything sustainable....

we'll see.  be great if we've seen the worse but....  citi cutting 9k jobs is great for the stock I guess, but pretty shitty for those 9k

So is this bitch going to 9000?

We are going into an ugly territory here.

Hey, where is that bull again Sandman?

What have you been doing? The economy is going down the toilet with the dollar, so I'm starting to switch my new contributions to a multinational fund that focuses on exports. That and energy, alternative, and natural resource stocks. Hopefully these funds will do well with Bush's shit dollar. Also I'm contributing (not moving) a portion into bonds.

I'm glad nobody took my advice then!!!   :rofl:  From $21 a share to $8.38.  Yikes!!!  Now, as a GNR community, we should strike while it's at it's low!!!!!!!!!!!  Whaddaya say???   :hihi:

haha, yea that's how you sell it!

Maybe the worst pitch I've heard yet...... :hihi: :hihi:

Alright guys, here's an even better pitch!  It's down another 13.04% today to a delicious $7.60 per share!!!!!

Guys, we have to jump on this a.s.a.p.!!!  AXL!  As Monty Burns once said in the Fighting Hellfish episode of The Simpsons, "We'll all be rich!  Rich as Nazis!!!"  Just think, ya'll could be ruing the day you ignored AXL at $7.60 per share!!!!!!!   :yes:   :hihi:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25495186/

DETROIT - Shares of General Motors Corp. plunged Wednesday to close below $10 for the first time in more than half a century, on worries about the company?s cash needs and speculation about a possible bankruptcy protection filing down the road.

GM shares fell $1.77, or 15.1 percent, to close at $9.98. Their session low of $9.96 marked their lowest point since Sept. 13, 1954, when they hit $9.92, according to the Center for Research in Security Prices at the University of Chicago. The price is adjusted for splits and other changes.

etc etc

TAP, how dare you post such unpatriotic anti-American propaganda!  The American car industry is alive and well and you and your America-hatin' crowd are just trying to cripple this great nation with your negative liberal articles!!!

Invest in AXL!!!!  This things dropped a ton, buy low sell high!!!!!

It's been a rough past couple of weeks to say the least.  I got slaughtered.  not fun at all.  Worst part is I don't see things turning up anytime soon.

Hill-dog, AXL is at $7.52.  The time is now!!!  Let's pool our funds and get rich off of AXL! 

One article over at Yahoo was titled:  "Narcissism, nepotism and greed at American Axle"   :rofl:

Come on!  52 week high was over $30!!!  Who here wants to make 400% on their investment??????  ;D

Pool money from the Republicans on the board, according to them the economy is awesome.

It's a sad statement when we can't even get GNR forum members to come together and support AXL.   :(

Funds (http://content.members.fidelity.com/fs/html/1,,snr|perf|html|name|Y|0,00.html)

You want energy?  I give you AXL.  The man is non-stop energy.  AXL gives ya everything he's got.

We'll just have to compare how all those high-falootin' funds do in the long-run against AXL!!!   :hihi:

You buy those, and I'll do my picks. Check back after a few months and see how we're doing.  :hihi:

Just curious, can you find one post of anyone on this board stating the economy is awesome?  If so I've never seen it.  You characterization of the republicans on this board is just inaccurate.

Yes.

Sandman was going on about how healthy the economy was.

Just because you haven't seen it, doesn't mean it's not so.  :hihi:

My characterization? What? That they vote against their own best self interest? That they think a weak dollar doesn't effect the price of oil? That debt is good? That deficit is good? That a weak dollar can actually be a good thing?

The DOW is now lower than when chimpy took office.

Quarterlies are in, ouch.  At least the kid stayed above board.

Anybody got Budweiser stock?

Yea, get a load of that, bought up by Stella? Whoduthunkit?

somebody please explain to this simpleton what cineater and slc are referencing!  Thanks...(in Forest Gump voice), "thanks a-lot."   :yes:

America for sale (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25125351/).

Get used to it.

Oh hell, don't worry!  The Belgians just need an ad campaign with Toby Keith, Ford trucks, lots of flags waving, and a cameo appearance by Johhy Mac!  That's right, McCain will smile, take a sip, and say, "I'd never veto this!"  (the background music would be Hulk Hogan's theme from '80's WWF I am a Real American).   :yes:

Instant fucking classic!   :rofl: