Here Today... Gone To Hell!

this is painful!!!!

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071107/national_debt.html?.v=1

Seems like yesterday that I was thinking "Wow... 5 Trillion.  That's astronomical." 

They sure do grow up fast!  :'(

What a fucking mess.

Just wait till the market crashes - its being kept afloat by bullshit smoke and mirror tricks. won't last forever though.  the bubble is going to burst and its going to be painful.

I was pretty much saying the same thing to the missus after I read this thread. I'm very interested to see what is around the corner. Although, at the same time, I'd rather not look.

These criminals have accumulated more debt, in our name, than all the other administrations combined.

Not adjusted to inflation...

But of course, it's the debt that causes the inflation...

Cute system.

Who/Where do they borrow all this money from? Imagine the interest on that baby.

Some from the private sector and foreign countries, but the bulk of it comes from the FED.

I thought the US government was just printing more money, wasn't this (printing money) fast tracked through congress?

We do print money, as the population grows and to replace old money (beat up and/or easier to counterfeit), but printing money leads to currency devaluation and inflation, rather than debt (indirectly, maybe).

Then this might come as a surprise to you...

The US government doesn't print money, the federal reserve prints money. In contrast to what most believe the FED is not federal. It is a consortium of privately owned banks who each hold shares according to their holdings. The federal reserve and the government is in what they like to call 'a special relationship' (from the FEDs own website). The only federal connection to the system is that the board of governors (or it might just be the chairman) is appointed by the President. Of course, since the President usually knows little about economics, it is the banking committees of congress and beneficiaries in the presidential campaign who compose lists for him to choose from, alongside probably follows recommendations to the most suitable candidates.

So whenever the government needs money for special programs, to smoothen over irregularities in the tax collections or war, especially war, they go to the FED. The FED then 'buys' securities from the government, injecting fresh capital into the system. Of course, they're not really buying anything since the money is created out of thin air. There are no reserves in the federal reserve system.

The problem is that the government has to pay interest on these loans. Meaning that there are never enough money in circulation to cover the loan, so they have to take up new loans to cover the old ones. Which means printing even more money. That is why the debt keeps growing and growing. Who pays for it? You do, through your federal income tax.

I must wonder if any Bush supporters here, are able to finally admit the failures of this administration and what harm they have done to our economy?

***

Dollar Falls to Record on China's Plans to Diversify Reserves
By Stanley White and Kosuke Goto

Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar slid to record lows against the euro and the Canadian dollar on speculation China's plans to diversify its foreign exchange reserves will involve selling U.S. assets.

The currency slumped after Cheng Siwei, vice chairman of China's National People's Congress, told a conference in Beijing the country should improve the structure of its $1.43 trillion of foreign reserves by favoring stronger currencies. It pared losses after he later added that doesn't mean buying more euros. The dollar also slumped to a 26-year low against the pound and a 23-year low against the Australian dollar.

``Cheng Siwei, a China adviser, apparently said China should diversify into strong currencies,'' said Lee Wai Tuck, a currency strategist at Forecast Singapore Ltd. ``This is one of the comments that triggered the buying of the euro and selling of the dollar.''

The dollar slumped to $1.4666 per euro, the lowest since the 13-nation currency debuted in January 1999, before trading at $1.4615 at 11:31 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.4557 late yesterday. It fell to $1.0975 per Canadian dollar, the lowest since Canada's currency was floated in 1950.

Against the pound, the dollar declined to $2.0947, the lowest since May 1981. The currency slid against the Australian dollar to 93.75 U.S. cents, the lowest since April 1984 from 92.87 U.S. cents. The dollar may fall to $1.4700 per euro today, Lee forecast.

China Investment Corp., which manages the nation's $200 billion sovereign wealth fund, said last month it may get more of the nation's reserves to invest to improve returns.

Fed Rates

The currency also slid against higher-yielding currencies including the Australian dollar and the Norwegian krone as losses from subprime-mortgage defaults added to pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower its target for the overnight lending rate between banks to 4.25 percent next month.

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its benchmark borrowing cost to 6.75 percent today, while traders added to bets Norway's central bank will increase its 5 percent deposit rate.

``The interest-rate outlook is dragging down the dollar against major currencies such as the euro and the Australian dollar,'' said Seiichiro Muta, director of foreign exchange in Tokyo at UBS AG, the world's second-largest currency trader. ``I cannot see the bottom of the dollar depreciation yet.''

It declined to 5.3403 kroner from 5.3474. It may fall to $1.46 a euro today, Muta said.

Central Banks

Interest-rate futures traded on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 62 percent chance of a quarter-percentage point Fed rate cut on Dec. 11, compared with 6 percent a month ago. Citigroup Inc. may write down an additional $2.7 billion worth of subprime-related assets, CreditSights Inc. said yesterday.

Australian central bank Governor Glenn Stevens, announcing today's quarter-point rate increase, said inflation will exceed his target. Norwegian forward-rate agreements, a kind of interest-rate futures contract, gained yesterday on speculation the central bank will lift borrowing costs at least once more by the end of 2008. The Norges Bank next meets Dec. 12.

New Zealand's dollar rose to 78.35 U.S. cents from 78 U.S. cents on speculation a report tomorrow will show the unemployment rate remained at a record low, boosting the chance of another increase to the country's record 8.25 percent benchmark interest rate.

Subprime Loans

``The dollar is weak against a host of currencies, including the euro, the pound and the Australian dollar,'' said Mitsuru Sahara, senior currency sales manager at Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., a unit of Japan's biggest publicly traded lender. ``We can't tell how much money banks will loose on subprime loans. The Fed is likely to cut rates again before the end of the year.''

The U.S. currency may fall to $1.46 against the euro and 114.30 yen today, Sahara said.

Gains in the euro may be limited by speculation European economic growth is peaking out, reducing the need for higher interest rates.

The European Central Bank will keep its key rate at 4 percent tomorrow, according to all 61 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Data yesterday showed manufacturing orders in Germany fell more than expected in September.

``There is a European industrial complex which is now suffering from the euro being at such super expensive levels,'' said Peter Pontikis, treasury strategist at Suncorp-Metway Ltd. in Melbourne. ``The data all suggest you'll get a real slowdown. I'd be against the possibility of a rate hike.''

Europe's single currency will trade at $1.43 versus the dollar by year-end, according to the median forecast of 42 analysts and brokerages surveyed by Bloomberg News.

a weak dollar does not equal a weak economy. in fact, a weak dollar is not necessarily a bad thing.

the U.S. economy is healthy.

but not many people understand economics even a little bit, which is why headlines about weak dollar and national debt scare them into believing things that simply are not true.

But you do, right?

The reason so few 'understand' economy is because it's a ridiculous complex system created to hide the fact that we're being cheated out of money. Fraud is what it is. Legal crime.

A nation does not need to pay anyone for printing the money needed in the economy. In fact the US Constitution explicitly state that this is not only unnecessary, but illegal.

Please give me one sound reason why we're paying our private central banks to provide us with liquidity?

People like you are why people like Bush are allowed to run this country into the ground.

I'll be a gentleman and let you go first.

Why is a weak dollar not necessarily a bad thing?

Explain how the US economy is healthy ?

Please explain to the meager proletariat, we'd love you to bestow your economic wisdom onto the masses who are only capable of reading headlines from the liberal media.

For chrissake, you and your fucking crusade, must you hijack every thread in this section with your Zeitgeist drivel?

the ol' "weak currency = strong exportation" ... ?

I'm sorry, but your lack of self esteem is of little concern to me. Go and bait some republicans again. I'm honestly tired of seeing your pathetic comments on everything that doesn't fit your world view.

It has nothing to do with "world view." It has to do with "topic".

Every thread you attempt to hijack and it always is about: The Fed, the elite, the NWO, aliens or some other Alex Jones horse shit.

I've said my piece. Consider yourself ignored.

Yes, and it's always the same piece.

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzz........................

Talk of Worst Recession Since the 1930s

After what Los Angeles money manager Arnold Silver called "a brutal three days," the question is: What now for the market?

A Wall Street superstar this year who runs Balestra Capital Partners, Jim Melcher, says he's "worried about a recession. Not a normal one, but a very bad one. The worst since the 1930s. I expect we'll see clear signs of it in six months with a dramatic slowdown in the gross domestic product."

Balestra Capital, a $350 million New York hedge fund, was up 3% for the past three market sessions, when the Dow Jones Industrials, spearheaded by widespread declines in financial stocks and fears of more billion-dollar-plus asset write-downs, tumbled more than 677 points, or about 4.5%. The Nasdaq fared worse, skidding about 7%, triggered by across-the-board declines in those fast-stepping technology stocks.

Balestra has increased in value by 175% so far this year, Mr. Melcher tells me. A 9-year-old fund, it has posted compounded annual growth of about 30% since its inception.

Mr. Melcher, a market bear, had some pretty discouraging words. "What I think is not good for the country, but good for me." he says. His basic advice to the country's roughly 80 million stock players: Run for the hills ? the worst is far from over. An investor's stock portfolio now, he believes, should be only about half of what it might normally be.

With the housing market in a state of collapse ? and he says he believes it is far from over ? Mr. Melcher argues that average homeowners will not be able to withstand the kind of recession he sees, given the added burdens of rising energy and food costs, and continued deterioration in the credit markets.

Noting that consumption is already slowing, Mr. Melcher figures sharply rising unemployment is inevitable. Another of his worries is that central banks around the globe, America's included, are debasing their currencies, which is setting the stage for a new round of higher inflation. Our bear figures the next six to 12 months will be awful for investors as the market goes down "pretty substantially." His frightening outlook calls for an additional 20% to 30% decline from current levels. A drop of that magnitude would put the Dow down in a range of roughly 9,100 to 10,400.

Asked how he could conceivably give credibility to such an ominous forecast, Mr. Melcher observes: "I've never seen a market with more risk and what's significant is that risk is not yet priced in."

Given his grim expectations, he says there is no equity market in the world he would play right now. "When the American market goes down, other equity markets around the world should follow," he says.

As of now, his portfolio is pretty much devoid of stocks, save for an exchange-traded fund focused on leading companies in oil services, which he regards as an ongoing growth industry. The ETF, the Oil Services Holders Trust, trades on the American Stock Exchange under the symbol OIH. Although enthusiastic about the industry's growth prospects, Mr. Melcher says he would be reluctant to recommend oil services stock because he believes the price of oil could easily drop 50% in the recession he envisions.

Another danger he sees for the market is the prospect of huge withdrawals of funds from America by foreign investors due to the falling dollar, the credit crisis, and a slowing economy.

At the moment, Mr. Melcher's chief investment strategy is shorting stocks and certain bonds, notably mortgage-backed and junk bonds, through the use of derivatives, put options, and credit default swaps. He is also short ABEX, an index of residential mortgage-backed securities.

His short strategy is largely responsible for his super performance this year, as are his holdings in gold. The fact he's sticking to this strategy is evidence that he firmly believes the chaos in the financial markets is far from over. Mr. Melcher is also gung-ho on several currencies, particularly the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen.

The average investor, he believes, should seek to protect his assets by raising cash, putting money to work in short-term treasuries, and buying some gold (notably through StreetTRACKS Gold Trust, an ETF that tracks the price of the precious metal and trades on the Big Board under the symbol GLD).

Is the world coming to an end? I asked our bear. "I don't think so," he replied, "but as I mentioned, the ingredients are in place for the worst kind of a recession, which means it's the wrong time to own stocks."


NY Sun

The market has been due for a correction for a while. Down to 9000 or 9500 seems likely, maybe more. 2 years ago I thought gold would top off at 750; it is close to 850 now, and I'm beginning to think 1000 or 1100 is entirely possible. This might be a good time to make some money.

If it takes a dump (ie, more than just "correct''), then I'll take a big gulp and buy all the way to the bottom-as much as I can get my hands on. Hopefully I can come out the other end with my purple wig intact. I also pray to the flying spaghetti monster that I'll be renting again before the feces hits the flabellum.

I know it sounds crazy, but chicken futures on the Honkong market in the next 6 months look very promising. Ethanol production has driven up the price of corn; chicken is sure to follow. That is the only market that I'm aware of where chicken can be bought.

Chickens?

Man you're really fuckin crazy.

Nuttier than a damn fruit cake. :hihi:

BTW google "price of chicken"

You're serious?

Households struggling with rising food prices are about to take another hit with the cost of chicken meat tipped to increase 20-30 per cent from next month.

The Australian Chicken Meat Federation says escalating feed-grain prices, which have more than doubled in the past year, and rising fuel costs makes the increase inevitable.

Feed makes up more than 60 per cent of the cost of producing a chicken and there is no substitute for grain, the federation said.

"With the unprecedented rise in the cost of grain, chicken producers are finally being forced to pass on these costs to the consumer," executive director Andreas Dubs said.

"The forthcoming price increase is simply inevitable."

The price rise is expected to take effect in mid-November and will affect all chicken meat, from whole chickens to processed products.

The federation said chicken prices had remained constant for more than a decade when adjusted for inflation because efficiency gains had been passed on to consumers.

As a heart attack.

Closing bell just reported "Worst numbers in a decade" for retail sector. I guess in the world of denial that translates to "economy is healthy."

Why does that remind me of "The surge is working"?

i'm not interested in arguing economics. at least not in these threads.

but here's two thoughts to consider...

1. Clinton left office with a surplus, and the U.S. entered a recession three months later.
2. the fact that many are predicting continued growth throughout 2008 despite major crises speaks volumes as to the overall strength of the economy. 


Some Win, Some Lose As Dollar Falls
By MARTIN CRUTSINGER ? 5 hours ago

WASHINGTON (AP) ? The once-mighty dollar has been drooping lately, falling to historic lows against the 13-nation euro, the Canadian "Loonie" and other foreign currencies. Here are some questions and answers about the dollar's slide and the impact it will have.

Q: Why is the dollar so weak all of a sudden?

A: The dollar has actually been falling in value since early 2002. It dropped nearly 25 percent over that time against a group of major currencies, according to an index maintained by the Federal Reserve. The problem is that the slide has accelerated sharply since late summer.

Q: What happened?

A: The credit crisis that hit with ferocity in August spooked foreign investors, causing them to pull some of their investments out of U.S. markets and put them in other countries. That meant the foreign demand for dollars fell, and the currency slid in value.

Q: Was that all that occurred?

A: No. The Federal Reserve contributed to the slide when it decided Sept. 18 to cut a key interest rate it controls by a bigger-than-expected half point. The Fed wanted to lower U.S. interest rates to boost the economy and prevent a recession. But the action also prompted some investors to move their holdings to other countries where interest rates were higher. Again, the forces of supply and demand meant that if fewer people wanted dollars, the price of the currency would fall.

Q: Is this such a bad thing, given that the dollar has been weakening for more than five years?

A: It depends on who you talk to. American tourists traveling to Toronto, London and Paris are experiencing the pain of having to shell out more for hotel rooms and restaurant meals. The dollar is down 16 percent against the Canadian currency since the start of this year. It is down 10 percent against the 13-nation euro and 4 percent against the British pound during the same period.

Those declines also mean U.S. consumers face higher prices for imported goods. The price of imported oil has soared in recent weeks, trading briefly above $98 per barrel. Oil is sold in dollars and producers are demanding higher prices to compensate for the dollar's decline.

Q: Does anybody win from the weaker dollar?

A: American manufacturers and farmers are enjoying a surge in export sales to record levels as the weaker dollar makes their goods cheaper and thus more competitive abroad. The export boom is helping to lower the U.S. trade deficit this year following five straight years of record highs.

The growth in exports is helping cushion the economic impact from the steep slump in housing, adding nearly a full percentage point to growth in the most recent quarter. Without the export boom, many economists believe the country would be in much greater danger of falling into a recession from the combined blows of the housing slump, the credit crunch and soaring energy bills.

Q: So why not let the dollar keep falling?

A: As long as the decline is orderly, economists think the weaker dollar is exactly what is needed to lower the trade deficit to more manageable levels. The concern is what might happen if the decline is too rapid. That could trigger a rush for the exits by foreigners, sending U.S. stock prices plunging in value and interest rates soaring as demand for U.S. bonds suddenly falters. All that could send the country into a recession.

Q: How big a threat is that scenario?

A: Probably small. The U.S. economy is still the world's largest and its financial markets remain attractive places for foreign investment even with the dollar's slide.

Q: How has the Bush administration responded to the dollar's decline?

A: Benign neglect might be the best way to describe the administration's approach. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson continues to answer questions on the dollar by saying "a strong dollar is in our nation's interest." But the administration hasn't done anything to back that up, such as intervening with other countries to buy dollars to support the greenback's value.

Private economists, however, generally support Paulson's tacit acceptance of the dollar's decline. A weaker dollar boosts exports and lowers the trade deficit. That helps the administration politically by easing congressional pressure to erect protectionist trade barriers.

Q: So where does the dollar go from here?

A: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress recently that he believed economic conditions would lead "to a sound dollar in the medium term." And even more significantly, Bernanke told lawmakers that the Fed believed current economic risks were roughly balanced between weak growth and higher inflation. That was viewed as a signal that the Fed may not cut interest rates further. No further Fed rate cuts would mean foreigners would get higher returns on their U.S. investments, taking downward pressure off the dollar.

Many economists believe the dollar will start to stabilize as the U.S. trade deficit falls further. Fewer dollars pouring into foreigners' hands to pay for imports will ease pressure on the greenback. Some analysts believe the dollar may even start to rise in value against European currencies although they expect it will continue to fall against the Chinese yuan.

China is still running record trade surpluses with the United States. American manufacturers contend China is manipulating the yuan's value, keeping it as much as 40 percent lower against the dollar than it should be. The Bush administration, which will hold another round of high-level economic talks with China in December, is pushing China to move more quickly to let the yuan appreciate in value to lower America's deficit.

Q: Will currency markets, where $3 trillion in currencies change hands daily, become less turbulent?

A: Probably not right away, analysts say. "I think we will have significant volatility over the next three to six months before the situation stabilizes. The U.S. economy will be close to a recession and the financial system will remain tenuous," predicts Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com.

It's Clinton's fault!!!  CLINTON CLINTON CLINTON!!!! It's always Clinton, no matter what is wrong, it all traces back to Clinton!  :hihi:


Of course you're not going to talk economics, because you don't have a leg to stand on. "Many" reminds me of "Everybody was behind us" at the start of the Iraq war. Just like you guys denied civil war in Iraq at the same time.

Many "economists" were calling for a rebound in the housing market this year too, where is that?

Here is the republican crazy world:

Weak dollar = Good

Sluggish economy = Strong

War = Peace

Blah blah blah.

Tell ya what...Why don't you put all your money into American blue chip, I'll take my mine and invest in Euros, and European funds and lets see who makes the most money. I've already done quite well betting against Bush's America, moving more than half my portfolio to Emerging markets and International funds over the last 18 months. Are you putting your money where your mouth is? What's the return on the S&P so far? Factoring in the eroding dollar and inflation? While you are at it go buy yourself a new home, it's a "buyers market" now. Lets see how you look in about 3-5 years.  :hihi:

i think it's obvious why i wouldn't get into detailed discussion of economics in these threads.

again, you accuse me of saying things i didn't say, and then criticize me for them. i didn't blame anything on clinton. just pointing out that a surplus/deficit isn't anything to stress out over.

i've seen plenty of people in these threads brag about their financial situations and their possessions. i'm not into that. but it sounds like you're doing real well financially. so what are you complaining about?

back in 2002, i knew alot of people that couldn't find jobs, i was laid off, and the job market was tight. now it seems like all i hear about is people doing great with their investments, switching jobs cause they got great offers, etc.

and here you go again, in case you missed it...

Q: So why not let the dollar keep falling?

A: As long as the decline is orderly, economists think the weaker dollar is exactly what is needed to lower the trade deficit to more manageable levels.

for all you scared investors out there, read this article. they mention two very good large-cap growth stocks.  :hihi: 


Profit in 2008: Your investments
Three ways to make the market's volatility work for you.
By Janice Revell, Money Magazine senior writer

(Money Magazine) -- Let's face it: As investors, we've been spoiled. A study by Wilshire Consulting shows that from 2004 to 2006, volatility in the U.S. stock market was almost freakishly low - in fact, over the past 30 years, there was only one other stretch (1993 to 1996) when the market was as calm.

That's history now, and the turbulence that erupted last summer looks to continue next year. But you can make that volatility work to your advantage.


Keep on keeping on
The best strategy in a rocky market is to stay in the game. As long as you're investing over a long enough period for the market to recover from a severe drop - about seven to 10 years - you will almost always be better off staying invested and continuing to pick up additional shares on market dips.

Consider the outcome if you had contributed, say, $400 every two weeks to your 401(k) plan and invested it in a low-cost stock fund like Vanguard's S&P 500 index fund during a volatile period like the third quarter of 2007.

By the end of September, the S&P 500 had just barely recovered from the 10% plunge it took in July and August, when the credit crisis was in full swing. For the full three months, the index fund eked out a gain of just 0.4%.

But because you'd have scooped up more shares for each $400 contribution when the market was falling, you would have racked up a 2.7% gain on your 401(k) contributions for the third quarter - a return that most professional money managers would have killed for.

By the way, you would have gotten the same type of great returns if you had been buying stocks right after the crash of 1987 - or after any other big drop - as long as you had stuck with your picks a few years.

"It's during times of volatility, the scary times, that your discipline pays off," notes Stephen Wood, senior portfolio strategist at Russell Investment Group.


Think big
The combination of a slowing U.S. economy and the weaker dollar weighs heavily in favor of large-cap growth stocks like General Electric and Cisco that can rely on their foreign operations to prop up their earnings when the U.S. slows down.

And unlike smaller companies, which have registered strong price gains over the past few years, large companies still look inexpensive heading into 2008.

"You're getting some of the bluest of the blue-chip companies at bargain-basement prices," says Bob Turner, chief investment officer of Turner Investment Partners.

Within the Money 70, our list of recommended mutual and exchange-traded funds, solid large-cap growth choices include American Funds Amcap (AMCPX (Charts), T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth (TRBCX (Charts) and Jensen (JENSX (Charts).


In fixed income, go for high quality
Compared with stocks, bonds may not look like an overly appealing investment for 2008. After all, the Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts have depressed bond yields, enhancing the relative appeal of stocks.

Ten-year Treasury bonds, for instance, were recently yielding just 4.4%. But unless you've got an ironclad stomach, owning some bonds will be particularly important next year.

Those yields will provide a much needed buffer against the sharp ups and downs of the stock market.

Given the general concerns about credit quality, favor highly rated bonds. Sticking with shorter maturities also makes sense. The weakening dollar could fuel inflation, which would seriously erode the returns on longer-term bonds.

Some top-quality selections from the Money 70 whose bond portfolios match that description: Dodge & Cox Income (DODIX (Charts), FPA New Income (FPNIX (Charts) and Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index (VBISX (Charts).

We are talking about DEBT and that is something to be concerned over.


Well one, nobody is bragging that I see. I simply said I put my investing strategy against Bush's America. I also asked you to put your money where your mouth is.

See that's where you and I are different. I'm doing ok, but even if I was doing better I still care about the direction my country is going in. It's not all about me and screw everybody else if they are left behind. Just because you think like a republican doesn't mean everybody else does too.



That's great, but numbers are numbers, and your "numbers" don't count for a thing IMO. Raw data tells the truth.



Of course the "economists" are going to package this as sweetly as they can. Wall street has been so volatile this year, they don't want to shake things up worse than they already are. It reminds me of Greenspan saying that there was no housing bubble, that while things were getting "frothy" everything was ok. Wall street doesn't need more gloomy news at this point, they'll sugar coat the truth as long as they can. If he would have told the truth, the street would have lost millions at that time-just like they are now with the truth being out on the table.

Besides looking at the Dow to determine health of the economy is like checking your pulse to see if you are healthy. It only show that you have a pulse, it doesn't determine your health. So let's look at everything else you are ignoring.

Gasoline Double 2001 price
Dollar at lowest in history
US Trade Deficit at Record levels-which ironically you bring up, weak dollar here to save this mess
US Housing Market at record foreclosures 10 quarters in a row
Financial Companies recording worse loses in 30 years
Millions of Jobs off shored
Auto industry at record lows, closing record number of plants
Inflation at highest level in 20 years

And of course...the national debt, in the trillions now, which you seem to also think is a good thing. That is data, that is reality, not "hey my friends are doing great."

Personally I dont' take my advise from analysts who want you to buy and sell stocks, regardless if you lose, because they make money no matter what. It's as dumb as listening to a realtor.

Ironically your last article contradicts what you are claiming: a strong economy. It points out that great buys can be had during a sluggish economy. Which I already said (buy to the bottom) and that the economy is not "healthy" as you said earlier.

Which one is it then? Healthy economy or sluggish one where Blue Chip stocks can be had on the cheap?

yes, of course there are issues. although the major issues having the greatest effect have to do with risky (or dumb) decisions by consumers and financial institutions.

you also conveniently left out consumer spending and unemployment. ?

ok, let's talk DEBT. what do you mean "in the trillions NOW"? you make it seem like this is something that just happened over the last few years. i guess you don't realize the history of our national debt.

and since you don't believe the economy has been in good shape in recent years, i use the late 90's. the national debt was around $4-5 trillion back then. didn't prevent the economy from growing though, did it?

it's no secret the economy is slowing. it's being hit with some major turbulance. but overall it's healthy enough to withstand it. everyone was convinced consumer spending would be down in Q3. they were wrong. 

as you sort of stated, the stock market is not the sole measuring stick of the economy.

and also as you stated, just because a senior writer makes a statement, doesn't make it true.

 ? ? I do have to agree with Sandman re:Consumer decisions especially in a over priced housing market. ?I really have to wonder why people buy $800,000 houses and while they're at it borrow a little more to buy that Escalade. ?A few years go by and then they realize that they can't afford it? ?Well I'm very sorry for you dumb ass. ?You have to keep up with the neighbors? ?Don't trust a scum bag house salesperson who is also going to lend you the money either. ?Regardless of your political belief there are more people out there looking to screw anyone over so that their bank account is full. ?It's a sad but true fact of life. ?I wish there were more honest people out there but no there isn't once greed takes hold.
 ? ? Yes I do believe that your porfolio should include foreign investment, but it is for more of a balancing act. ?I wonder if it really matters because of global corporations. ?Many hold a European name only to be owned by Citi-Corp, GE or whoever. ?I do believe in Gold and Platinum for that matter and yes I own stock in Tyson because chicken is good. ?I would love to own a whole load of platinum chickens. ?Honestly does the top 2% of money earners care about anyone or about politics? NO. ?As long as the bulls and bears can retire at night on those stuffed matresses and they're the ones in control of the countries finances. ?IE:Randolph and Mortimer Duke sadly these guys do exist. ?I hope no one here is eating Nova Scotia lox through his fake beard this Christmas season while riding the bus with his drink on.
 ? ? If you look at both sides, you can find valid arguments for both sides. ?If you have investments you would do better riding it out because I've been through it before in the big 80's. ?It's cyclical and your portfolio manager if he wants to earn a commision is going to make sure you don't lose your savings, if they are honest and have half a brain that is.

 ? ?And on one further note PUNK stop yelling "Republican" because I'll hit a lady and then if I find you to be a man I'll bring sexy back on you, being a republican and all I may just start tapping away all up on you.
 ?Lighten up Francis's! ?All of you will be sent to your rooms w/o any political programming Damn it.

All I would like to have is enough for my children to go to college and to be retired in 5 years ok 10 years.  I'm not into greed or keeping up with the Jones's.  Just enough wine for the men, hay for the horses and mud for my turtle is all I ask for.

The US consumer relying on debt is one of the primary reasons for the weak dollar. In a sense, I agree with you; a weak dollar will make the coming recession less painful and should help balance some of the trade deficit.

i just hate when people talk about debt so negatively. debt is good. but you have to be able to control it. the monthly bills that don't bother me even a little bit are my mortgage payments and my home equity loans. 

i don't feel bad for people that borrowed more than they are able to pay back. partly because along with a high mortgage payment, many have high credit card balances, and expensive cars.

and i don't feel bad for the lending institutions that entered risky markets to make more money. plenty stayed away from the subprime market and they are sitting real pretty right now.

I ?conveniently? left it out huh? What were we talking about again anyway? I know you think that countries build economic powerhouses from weak currencies, that soaring debt is actually a good thing, and that a deficit even better yet! Are you also implying that consumer spending is up?

Maybe you should read your history books. Clinton actually created a surplus, so he was able to pay the debt down.  During Clinton?s term the Dow moved from 3300 to over 10,000, and had the largest Surplus Economy in history. And are you implying that the economy is good again?  In the start of the thread you said it was great, then you said everybody knows it?s slowing down, now you are implying that it?s good again. Which one is it?

I know you are real gung ho on the ?weak dollar is good for the trade deficit.? But again, did it occur to you that we have an atrocious trade deficit to begin with? That does not strike you bad? Bush took the largest growth economy (Clinton) and turned it into a $5T Trade Deficit, $5T Spending Deficit (in reality a type of tax) and the country is heading into recession if the Fed can't dump enough money into the economy (Over $300 billion so far), which doesn?t seem to be working well. Besides, you ignore all the bad things associated with having such a weak currency. I guess I could say ?conveniently? left out. I?d be concerned about people moving to the Euro as the trading standard for starters.

Yes the economy is slowing (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071121/leading_indicators.html), yes we are pointing towards a recession, and I?d say we are already seeing recession characteristics in specific sectors already. Is it the end of the world? No. But don?t sit there and try to tell me everything is rosy when the data says the opposite.

So go read your articles written by wall street hacks, with vested interests in painting a picture of a healthy economy. I?ll stick to reports, and statistical analysis that provide a more realistic profile.

So, just for the record, you do not think we are the cusp of a recession? You think the economy is doing well (Final answer?)


Debt is good huh?

That was Solius Symbiosus after the TFHL Xmas party. He flashed Lisa that same night.


My goal is to simply not work.


You wanna put jelly on a lady?

Debt is good huh?


Exactly how is debt a good thing?

I took it as this:

Debt can be fine, if it's responsible debt.  A house payment or car payment, for example...things people can't usually afford in one payment, but which can be deemed as necessities (shelter/transportation). 

Of course it's still backwards.  If I buy a car worth $20K, then my payments over five years add up to more than $30K.  If some rich dude wants to buy that same $20K car (probably for his spoiled 16 year old), he only pays $20K.  Nice system.

If the US economy is so healthy, then why would Canada refuse to amalgamate currencies with the US?

..Because the US economy is one of the poorest performing economies in the world right now, whereas Canada has one of the strongest :)

the US economy reminds me of an idiom in the 60s- 70s "burn baby burn".

The Australian economy is also fucking strong ... so we're gonna vote out our leader and replace him with an economic rookie ... Australians are smart huh? **Sigh**

the point of this thread was to scare people into thinking the $9T debt is something to worry about. it is not.

of course a recession is possible, but it's not a guarantee. there are some very positive signs right now which i am hoping can balance things out and help the economy's growth to continue. and if one occurs, it will be short lived. much like the recession in 2001.

consumer spending accounts for 70% of the economy. and despite the issues over the last year, consumer spending was up 3% in Q3. the predictions of "experts" are largely based on the expectations that consumer spending will decline due to the weakness of the housing market.

i think the low unemployment rate and increasing payrolls will be enough to keep consumer spending on the rise.

What amount of debt would be something to worry about?  Are you suggesting the debt number is irrelevant?



 

that's a tough question to answer. and you need to consider what the money is paying for, and the benefits it has provided our society.

Sheeple ^

Markets cheered by economic data

December 5, 2007
Wall Street rallied today after new data showed the U.S. economy is in good shape and that another interest rate cut is still a possibility. The Dow Jones industrial average rose more than 170 points.

Stocks turned around following two sessions of losses after a report showed hiring in the U.S. private sector expanded at a faster pace in November. ADP Employer Services said 189,000 jobs were added during the month ? an increase that bodes well for consumer spending.

??The best news for the market is good news on the economy,?? said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank. ??There might be a general malaise among homeowners these days, but as long as more people are getting paychecks then the economy can withstand the stress.??

This week?s economic reports are being closely watched by the Federal Reserve, which meets next Tuesday to discuss interest rates. Investors also weighed reports on manufacturing and factory orders.

It is widely expected central bankers will lower rates to help pump up the economy and head off a recession. However, some investors are betting the Fed will go beyond the generally anticipated quarter percentage point cut, and lower rates by a half point.

Oil
OPEC decided Wednesday to keep output ceilings steady for now, a move that briefly propelled crude prices above $90 a barrel. Meanwhile, the government reported that U.S. oil supplies fell steeply last week while gasoline stockpiles rose, both by greater margins than analysts had expected.

Light, sweet crude rose 19 cents to $88.51 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at midday.

LOL, I read that earlier today. You left out this part:

"Still, there is enough uncertainty in the economy -- in particular the financial sector that is still struggling from months of credit problems -- that the market expects the Fed to lower rates. Some investors are betting the Fed will go beyond the generally anticipated quarter percentage point cut, and lower rates by a half point."

Still making rate cuts to prop it up. The last rate cut kept the street rallying for what? Five days? Then.....

Forecast says economy will avoid recession

LOS ANGELES - The nation's housing doldrums will drag on at least through 2009, dampening U.S. economic growth and job creation, but the slowdown won't push the economy into a recession, according to a new economic report.

Despite plunging housing values, rising oil prices and credit problems that continue to plague Wall Street, the nation's job market is unlikely to suffer the kind of steep losses that would tip the economy into recession, according to the quarterly Anderson Forecast by the University of California, Los Angeles.

"We still think an official recession is not in the immediate future," concluded Edward Leamer, director and co-author of the forecast set for official release Thursday.

Some economists and financial pundits have warned the nation will sink into recession, with a wave of reset adjustable-rate mortgages tearing through the economy next year.

Leamer, however, insisted the housing woes alone won't hobble the economy enough to cause two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth in the nation's gross domestic product _ the standard used to define a recession.

In addition, the U.S. unemployment rate would have to soar from the current 4.6 percent to nearly 6 percent by the end of next year, the equivalent of a loss of at least 2 million jobs, Leamer said.

That would require major job losses from a sector other than construction, something the UCLA economist doesn't see happening.

Heavy job losses in manufacturing, which has shed about 3 million jobs since 2001, could have such an impact, but Leamer believes that is implausible.

Still, he projects the economy will remain sluggish for another couple of quarters before starting to rebound in the second half of 2008.

The forecast estimated the housing slump cost the U.S. economy a percentage point of growth this year, or one-third of the typical 3 percent annual rate of increase.

Leamer predicted U.S. housing prices will continue to drop, and levels of new construction will remain depressed, through 2009.

Even so, the housing drag on the national economy will "substantially abate" by mid-2008, with housing starts bottoming out by next summer to about 900,000 units, Leamer said.

"That means that the builders are going to continue to suffer," he noted. "Starting middle of next year is when things stop getting worse ... that doesn't mean the housing market is healthy."

Many economists are worried that rising oil prices combined with housing and credit problems will shake consumer confidence, a key driver of growth.

The UCLA forecast said consumer spending will likely lag, particularly on large items such as cars.

"The auto sector is going to have a weak year," Leamer said.

Meanwhile, the decline in the value of the dollar should help fuel U.S. exports for the next several years, and the decline in consumer spending will mostly affect other countries as U.S. consumers purchase fewer foreign-made products, Leamer said.

Man you are desperate to make a point huh?

"Forecasts" said that the housing market would level out then bounce back up. Even greenspan said the housing market was "frothy" but not in a bubble. 

I base my opinions on raw data available right now.

The WSJ:

Surge in Auto-Loan Delinquencies Is Latest Trouble for the Economy - WSJ.com

By JEFFREY MCCRACKEN and GREGORY ZUCKERMAN
December 6, 2007; Page A1

First came housing loans and the subprime-mortgage crisis.

Now, signs of stress are creeping into another key consumer area: auto loans.

Delinquencies in the auto-loan market are ticking up to their highest level in several years. Lenders are tightening terms in some cases, and interest rates have risen from the rock-bottom levels of a few years ago. About $575 billion in loans for new and used cars are made annually, according to the National Automotive Finance Association.

About 4.5% of auto loans made in 2006 to top-rated borrowers were at least 30 days delinquent as of the end of September, up from 2.9% the previous month, according to a Lehman Brothers survey of companies servicing these loans. That is the biggest one-month jump in at least eight years. Lehman says 12% of subprime borrowers, who have poorer credit records, were delinquent on their 2006 auto loans as of September. That is the highest level since 2002 and up from 11.1% the previous month.

"The numbers will get worse for auto loans," says Dan Castro of GSC Group, a New York firm that runs debt-related investment funds. "We're starting to see signs of rising losses, and delinquencies are creeping up."

Few in the auto-loan industry see the strain as the kind of disaster-in-the-making that home mortgages have become. Still, there is a connection between the two categories, since the squeeze on some home borrowers may make it harder to carry car loans. The trouble signs in auto loans suggest that the credit woes could be spreading to the broader economy, a development that has been worrying investors and policy makers in Washington.

Other corners of the credit market are also sending troublesome signals. Shares of First Marblehead Corp., which packages student loans into securities, dropped to a two-year low yesterday after an analyst cut his rating on the stock and Moody's Investors Service threatened to downgrade some of its securities, also because of delinquency concerns.

Car loans differ from home loans in one crucial way. During 2004-06, many home loans were made to speculators on the assumption that the underlying asset -- the home -- was sure to keep rising in value. Many people, inspired by fervor in the market, took out home loans that in retrospect they had little hope of paying back.

By contrast, everyone understands that the car behind a car loan is an asset destined to lose value. The typical delinquent borrower in a car loan isn't a speculator but someone who became unable to make what previously seemed like a manageable payment. That is why car delinquencies are closely linked to the health of the economy.

"Auto-loan defaults tend to be event-driven, like a job loss or an unexpected health-care bill or a divorce," says Dan Berce, chief executive of AmeriCredit Corp., one of the country's largest subprime auto lenders. "We watch quite closely economic indicators like unemployment rate, weekly job claims or hours worked."

In the second quarter, borrowers were at least 30 days behind on 2.77% of all auto loans made by nonbank lenders, the main players in the market, according to the American Bankers Association. That was the highest delinquency rate since 1991.

Many auto loans undergo the same Wall Street financial engineering as the mortgage loans that stand at the center of the credit crisis, making this a potential issue for investors. Auto loans often are bundled together into securities, sliced and diced into pieces with varying levels of risk and return, and sold to investors around the world.

In 2006, $89 billion of auto loans were packaged into asset-backed securities and sold to investors, according to Standard & Poor's, making it the biggest asset class for such securities next to mortgages and credit cards. That tally doesn't include certain other types of securities backed by car loans. The market is now slowing. Deutsche Bank estimates such bundling was down to $69 billion during the first 11 months of this year, a 19% drop from the same period last year.

Borrower problems also could deal a blow to the already-struggling auto industry. Auto sales held up during the 2001 recession in part because lenders were able to offer easy borrowing terms. If lenders tighten terms in response to the delinquencies, it would make it harder for some people to buy cars.

U.S. auto sales are down about 2.5% this year, and the auto industry is bracing for sales to decline further in 2008. Interest rates on auto loans have increased to nearly 8% from about 6.5% in late 2004, according to J.D. Power & Associates.

The auto-loan-delinquency problem is somewhat less severe for two lenders associated with the top two U.S. car makers -- Ford Motor Co.'s Ford Credit, and GMAC Financial Services, which is 49%-owned by General Motors Corp. That is because Ford Credit and GMAC don't handle many subprime loans.

GMAC Treasurer David Walker said auto-loan delinquencies in the third quarter were the highest in at least three years, partly because of economic factors, but he said credit losses are still well within historical levels. Separately, GMAC is struggling with the fallout of the subprime-mortgage crisis because one of its units was a big home lender.

AmeriCredit, of Fort Worth, Texas, is also experiencing stress. The company makes about 500,000 new- and used-auto loans a year, valued at about $9 billion, some of which get sold to investors.

In the quarter ending Sept. 30, AmeriCredit reported net income of $61.8 million, down from $74.2 million for the period a year ago. It also lowered fiscal-2008 profit projections, blaming poorer-performing 2006 auto loans. AmeriCredit shares traded at $10.32 in 4 p.m. New York Stock Exchange composite trading yesterday, down 18 cents from the day before and 59% lower for the year to date.

There are reasons to believe the problems in auto loans won't reach crisis levels. Auto lenders and credit counselors say many consumers see their cars as a necessity and would sooner hand back the keys to a home and look for a rental than default on a car loan.

Auto lenders and dealers note that the monthly payment on a car is smaller than a mortgage payment. Most auto loans carry fixed interest rates, unlike subprime mortgages, which often reset to a higher rate after an introductory "teaser" period of two or three years.

Still, auto loans, like home loans, saw credit standards loosen in 2005 and 2006. CarMax Inc., of Richmond, Va., the largest used-car retailer in the country, said at the end of 2005 it lowered lending standards. For example, it allowed consumers to put down less money to buy more expensive vehicles. Car Max made about 140,000 car loans last year.

"We had been too strict and wanted to make more loans and maximize profitability. We expected our delinquencies and losses would go up, but they are up higher than we thought," said Katharine Kenny, head of investor relations at CarMax.

Some subprime auto lenders, such as Capital One Financial Corp., say they are seeing higher risks in parts of the country where home prices are falling the hardest, such as California and Florida. Lenders say rising delinquencies are also tied to higher fuel prices and slowing job growth.

Mr. Berce said rising delinquency rates prompted AmeriCredit to tighten its lending standards early this year and it will reassess the matter next month. It is now demanding that borrowers put down more cash against the value of the cars they are buying, especially among consumers with lower credit scores. Mr. Berce said this tightening of standards could reduce lending volume by about 10%.
--John D. Stoll contributed to this article.

Write to Jeffrey McCracken at jeff.mccracken@wsj.com and Gregory Zuckerman at

kinda stating the obvious. what do you think the Andersen Forecast does, look at data from a year ago???

and this Forecast is one of the most respected.

What do you want?

You've got economists putting up raw data that says we are on the cusp of a recession, and the fed dumping money into the system to keep things moving along.

Then we have others that believe the economy is just fine.

I don't agree with that assessment.

I think the bill just came due for our national "exuberance" over the last several years-time to pay up. A housing market void of fundamentals is bringing the house of cards down. Like I said, Greenspan claimed there was no bubble either, and look what happened.

We're big spenders, so what?

Other countries are just jealous.  :beer:

Greenspan: Odds of a Recessions Are Rising, Economic Growth Is Getting Close to 'Stall Speed'

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan says the odds the U.S. will fall into a recession are "clearly rising" and he believes economic growth is "getting close to stall speed."

Greenspan, who ran the central bank for 18 1/2 years, until early 2006, offered his views on the economy in an interview on NPR News' Morning Edition that will air on Friday. Excerpts of the interview were released on Thursday.

A severe slump in the housing market, a stubborn credit crisis and turbulence on Wall Street are endangering the country's economic health. Growth in the current October through December period is expected to have slowed to a feeble pace of just 1.5 percent, or less.

Economists, including Greenspan, have warned that the chances of a recession are growing.

Asked whether the economy will tip into a recession -- something that has not happened since 2001 -- Greenspan said, "It's too soon to say, but the odds are clearly rising."

He said he felt this way because of the slowing pace of growth. "We are getting close to stall speed," he said. "We are far more vulnerable at levels where growth is so slow than we would be otherwise," he added. "Indeed, it's like someone who has an immune system that's not working very well is subject to all sorts of diseases and the economy at this lever of growth is subject to all sorts of shocks."

Greenspan's remarks come just days after the Federal Reserve, under Chairman Ben Bernanke, sliced a key interest rate for a third time this year to prevent the housing and credit troubles from sinking the economy.

The situation poses the biggest challenge yet to Bernanke since succeeding Greenspan in February 2006.

Some analysts have questioned whether Bernanke waited too long to cut the Fed's key rate and whether he has acted aggressively enough to soothe the economy's woes. The Fed initially dropped its key rate in September, the first reduction in four years. That was followed up by additional rate cuts in late October and then again on Tuesday.

Greenspan again rejected criticism that his policy actions helped to feed a housing boom that eventually went bust. Critics say Greenspan held interest rates too low for too long after the 2001 recession.

To have prevented such euphoria in housing that fed a bubble in prices, Greenspan said the Fed would have had to jack up interest rates so high that it would have damaged the economy. "That would have broken the back of the economy, and brought the housing boom down," Greenspan said.

too soon to say if a recesion will happen. seems reasonable. probably being extra careful, or negative even, since he was dead wrong on the housing market outlook.

The larget jump in inflation since 1973.

Stocks drop after consumer inflation rises
Report shows consumer price index up 0.8 percent in November

NEW YORK - Stocks retreated Friday after a jump in consumer inflation raised concerns about how much freedom the Federal Reserve has to continue cutting interest rates.

The Labor Department said the consumer price index rose 0.8 percent in November amid a spike in gasoline prices. The report also found large increases in the cost of clothing, airline tickets and prescription drugs.

The report raises questions about the Fed?s options for priming the economy. The Fed this week lowered interest rates and announced a plan to align with other key central banks and offer loans to pressed lenders around the world. But while it wants to stimulate the U.S. economy and make lending easier among banks wary of faltering debt, the Fed also has to keep a watchful eye on inflation.

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?[ ... ]

Friday?s report on inflation follows a reading Thursday that showed the biggest jump in inflation at the wholesale level in 34 years.



Oh, but wait ... it gets better

The uptick in core inflation is unnerving, Dye said, because it makes it harder for the Fed to justify further rate cuts.

 It doesn't really matter who is elected, we are headed for a mess.? It will take years to correct the errors of Bush's failed policies.

Makes sense to why the Fed cut rates only 1/4% rather than the expected 1/2%
I'm going to kick in $100.00 so now it's only $899,999,900.00 now if we all just kick in we'll right this ship.
What's this string tied on my finger for?

a little tid bit on canadian debt, the total including all provincial and municipal is 736 billion and falling about $600 a second

Only 50 years left then :hihi:


Actually it's 8,999,999,999,900.00

lol

well the net debt is something like 436B for the fed alone, and that thanks to record tax revenues and a red hot economy over the last few years has delivered huges surpluses that are required to be paid down on the debt.

This July past we dumped 13B on it, and this coming year it is looking like we could be dumping as much or more on it as well. taking out the surplus payments we pay around 45B a year including intrest. If we changed the payment plan to a non blended weekly payback we could save as much as 20B over the next 22yrs (this is for total debt not just net debt). At our current repayment rate it will take only 9 years to eliminate the debt. and about a total of 16yrs for all govermental debt in canada.

As a bonus side we are in the wake of some decent tax cuts that will really be swining through over the next month, a reduction to personal income tax as well as a sales tax roll back. Cant wait to see what the budget is going to look like this coming spring :D

Things that Id like to see;

Increase spending in health care
Increase spending on childcare
Increase spending on post secondary education
Lock the defence budget to 2.5% GDP allowing for a natural increase year over year to macth that of inflation (we still dont have the manpower nor the equipment that we really do need, and have needed for some time, though we are getting better)
there are others as well  but these are the mains