Here Today... Gone To Hell!

Top Selling Albums of all time
#1 - 28,000,000 sold.   Their Greatest Hits (vol. 1)  The Eagles 
#2 - 26,000,000 sold.   Thriller  Michael Jackson 
#3 - 23,000,000 sold.   The Wall  Pink Floyd 
#4 - 22,000,000 sold.   Led Zeppelin IV  Led Zeppelin 
#5 - 21,000,000 sold.   Greatest Hits VOL I & II  Billy Joel 
#6 - 19,000,000 sold.   The Beatles  The Beatles 
#7 - 19,000,000 sold.   Come On Over  Shania Twain 
#8 - 19,000,000 sold.   Back In Black  AC/DC 
#9 - 19,000,000 sold.   Rumours  Fleetwood Mac 
#10 - 17,000,000 sold.   Boston  Boston 

Where do you think Chinese Democracy will land? Will it place?

If anything the release of Chinese Democracy and all the hype around it is more likely to push AFD into that chart, its had a bit of a headstart on CD

It will sell quite a few million I'm guessing but not close to those albums. I'd love to be wrong though  : ok:

Those are all albums that have been around for 10+ years.

So really perhaps the question should be referenced to "10 years from now - where will Chi Dem be?"

I'm sure it won't be in the top 10.

Rumours is really that low on the list? Wow! That used to be in second place.

Seriously, if Shania Twain can make it. She wears silver sweat pants, a sports bra and bedazzled sneakers in her videos. Seriously.

In this day in age of downloading, no band will ever come close to those figures. ?People just don't buy albums like they used to.

Sao Paulo (spelling?) has 21million people, Guns and Roses are Demi-gods in Brazil. I think with the right promotion they can place.

I agree. We need to improve our cd packaging and provide incentive for legal digital downloads... iTunes exclusives and advanced digital release dates and advanced online pre-order hard copy release dates (i.e. Amazon & HMV). Limited edition vinyls also promote album sales as they are typically sold to people who have already bought the cd.

You are absolutley correct.  I really think Axl and his Management are aware of what you mentioned and I'll be willing to bet we will get alot more than we initially bargained for in regards to certain "extras". : ok:

I agree...album sales will be irrelevant soon...its a digital world we live in.  ok, not irrelelvant, but not a true indicator of success.

Many digital sales are now rolled up and counted aren't they?   If you download the album from iTunes I BELIEVE that this data gets to the RIAA.

chinese d will sell about 2.5 in the usa and like 6 million worldwide

I don't think it will do that well.  Given enough time though, I hope it can outsell UYI I&II. I'll be fine with that.

I bought my first GN'R album today UYI 2  : ok:

which guns n roses is?? or is it axl only?? Not meant with sarcasm either..

Well Axl alone attracted 200,000 people to RIR3  : ok:

...and another 12 million sulked cause they could not attend, due to travel/money... they can afford the cd though.

no clue to be honest....but if you buy songs individually on itunes as opposed to buying the entire CD, how can you really track that?

I just want to see how it does compared to contraband ;)

I don't want to start a VR debate but I don't think there will be much contest in terms of sales.

I know I watched it... I wonder if people there would still go see gnr if axl wasn't there?

I think we all know the answer to that  : ok:  It's obvious.

Axl and his group of musicians are 'Guns N' Roses'. Sorry but you have to accept that or stop constantly reminding us of it because it's not going to change anytime soon.

You are correct. ?there are download stats, but downloads do not lump into the "album sales" stats. ?In fact, when someone legally downloads an album, the band actually get more money as opposed to when someone buys an album off the shelves. ?Also, when someone downloads a bands ringtone, the band receives money for that as well.

gnr is whatever you want it to be... I am a gnr fan and an axl rose fan... You can't just throw any bunch of guys together and because they are with axl just say yeah it's gnr accept it...  Gnr was a dynamic duo (face wise axe singer wise) That's my personal feelings... I feel this way on other bands as well..

Hell vh has huge success without dlr so who knows how gnr would have done with axl..??

The gnr name alone could sell out tons of venues with many changes..

those numbers are from USA alone.

1 million from this forum alone :hihi:

Your really living in a fantasy world if you think it  will be the highest selling album of "ALL TIME", never going to happen.

It'll place #1 by the end of March I predict.

CD might break the record for shifting more units in its first day or week of release.
I cannot see CD selling as many copies as AFD as i know many people who liked AFD and lost interest in GnR when the UYI albums came out.

I say anywhere from 6-10 million worldwide over the next 2 years..

I've noticed a lot of people around here have questionable concepts of quantity.

And even more lost interest when Slash, Duff, Izzy, Matt, etc. left the band.......

And even more after that lost interest after the 2002 Tour was cancelled.......

And even more lost interest after the VMA performance on MTV........

If you look at their album sales for all their albums, you'll see a trend that sales decrease by roughly half with each release all the way to GH; so if that trend holds true to form, it may sell about 1.5 mil copies.......it may break the TOP 1000 of all time

I only joined this forum about 3 months ago.....I never saw this discussed.....I hope....."Jesus Christ Skinflick!!"..anyway Is this a possibility or not?....Obviously it is going to sell plenty of copies just on the GNR name alone....the material is where the album will have a lasting appeal or not.....Forget about it outselling AFD...that ain't never gonna happen.(great english).....My opinion....if this album turns out to be even close as to what most of us expect, I believe it seriously has a realistic shot......and I am talking about in the first three to four years.....ok now, lets argue...err debate.
 
 :peace:

Well, Greatest Hits sold 3 million copies in the US, and that was basically AFD + a few UYI songs thrown together. I think Chinese Democracy will sell as well as AFD over time.

ok...either this HAS been posted before or....nobody gives a hot fuck.....tell me if you want this deleted folks....I am not fond of being completely useless...

I believe it has been discussed before... Either way, I think it will sell anywhere between 5 and 10 million. Promotion combined with curiosity will have a great impact on this album.

uyi did what? 30 million worlwide

cd won't come close to that.  i'd say roughly 10 million

I think CD will sell 1-2 million in the US, not because it will be worse than UYI, but because it's 2006 and not 1991 (or whenever UYI came out.) The market for hard rock is way different these days.

Thing is, that is a 15 year old number....so you're saying in 15 years CD won't come close to that?

ok in the 94 rockline interview it was quoted at 27 million, so i still don't think so

in 15 yrs? ummm... i hope it would but, i don't think so

Was it really that many at that time??...I don't remember that....looks like you did....from what I remember reading, it was something like 11 or 12...worldwide

okay, i read "chinese democracy out..." and i was like WHAT and then i realized it was this thread. ?:rant:

That wasn't intentional.....Time to delete this godforsaken thread....sorry people...

WHy do we always care about how it sells, its all about if one likes it or not.

You're crazy to think it will outsell the Illusions.  I know the album is gonna be great, but when the UYI's came out, they were the most anticipated release, especially after the success of Appetite.

My guess?  About 5 million in the first 2 years. 

I think it'll end up selling at least as well as the Illusions.

Anyone who thinks Chinese Democracy will come close to UYI I and II is completely high.  I still can't believe how many of you are so unrealistically hopeful that this new incarnation of "Guns" will be anything close to what 87-93 gave us.  I know you all back Axl no matter what he does but come on. 

The 87-93 era was a once in a lifetime thing.  I'm not saying CD will do bad, its just not going to come anywhere close to UYI...the brand name of "GNR" is only going to take him so far and will never equal Slash/Izzy/Duff/Matt/Steven.

CD will sell around 3-5 million in the states

Close to 9-10 million worldwide. Remember guys this isn't 1992 anymore.

Still, it can outsell any rock record which came out this year.

Depending on how well the music reaches listeners, I'm betting 4 million in the states.

It's a totally different climate than 1991, but 4 million would still be stellar for a rock album these days.

People who are thinking 10 million are dreaming...

  Guys, you have to understand that NO ARTISTS sell that many records anymore.  It's called internet downloading.  If any album nowadays crosses the 5 million mark it is a extreme success.  Factoring that into the decreased appeal for the New GNR, 2-3 million domestic sales, in my opinion, would be a very good success.  When the worldwide figures are tallied, this album will make the labal a shitload of money.  Then again, if it is a masterpiece, it may just exceed all of our expectations. 

Contraband managed to sell 3 million copies. I hope to God GNR manages to sell at least that many; otherwise there is a serious problem with the promotion of the album.

I think after four year it could sell around 10 million.

How many copies the "BEST" rock n roll record sells this years ?

I hope it does really well, but all things considered... I honestly don't expect CD to come anywhere near AFD or the UYI albums in sales.

However, I get the feeling that (besides promotion and the music itself) one of the greatest factors behind the overall financial "success" of Chinese Democracy... may have a lot to do with the two albums that follow it.

 :beer:

W.R. ?

5 mil in the U.S. If Contraband can do 3 mil, there's no reason CD can't do that and better.

It's funny how many different people have said "Chinese Democracy will sell _____________"
We have no idea how much it will sell.
It could be the biggest flop in the history of mankind.
It could be big.

Just because a few hundred people here are going to buy the CD, it doesn't mean others will.

And I still can't believe how much talk about the new bands success there is.
Why does it matter?
If the music is good, it's all that matters.

And anyone who says that Chinese Democracy will outsell ?AFD/UYI really doesn't understand the history of the old band.
Anyone who bought Use Your Illusion 1 bought Use Your Illusion 2. So, it's pointless to ask if CD will outsell 1 or 2. They were a pair, and usually bought as a pair.

These figures are only for the United States.

As of July 31, 2006

AFD sold 15 Million Copies
UYI I sold 7 Million Copies
UYI II sold 7 Million Copies

SOURCE: http://www.riaa.com/gp/bestsellers/topalbums.asp

A good point was brought up about internet downloading and how the numbers above will be highly unlikely in today's market because of downloads. AFD came out when downloading wasn't even thought of, and UYI I + II hit the market just before the internet took over (check me on that fact).

I say Chinese Democracy will sell 4.5 million by the time the 3rd anniversay of the album rolls around. That is probably too hopeful.

/NorthwindNS

That sounds about right.

You are mixing people's opinions about worldwide sales with certified U.S. sales... smooth!

Wow - thank you.... I am about to edit that..... :confused:
However, it can still be used as a decisive tool. : ok:

I'd say 3-5 million

I'd guess 8-10 mil within 5 years.

i'm sure that cd will have great selling,maybe it will be the album of the year,but i doubt it will outselling afd

frist reason is internet,many casual fans will download it

second afd have status of revelution album,because they made something new in rock music with it,i doubt chinese democracy wiould be revolution album

I think it's best to hear the record before we discuss this. Lock?

if gnr sell 3-5 million copy of new cd,chinese democracy will be album of year

Probably, bat that's because times have changed (downloads etc.)

So regardless all the new ways to get music, I think CD will be very successfull.

Use Your illusion I and II sold over 35 million copies worldwide. If you think ChiDem will sell "more" than these 2 Lp's, you are just living in a pure irrealistic dream.
I think some of you forgot who Slash is. back in the days, Slash was as popular as Axl, he was a guitar hero, and he had MILLIONS fans around the world. There is no new Slash in the newGNR, so don't try to even compare anything with the old band. Plus there was not internet (no downloading), and GN'R was the most popular Rock band in the world.?
ChiDem wil be successfull, I have no doubt about it, but it will be probably be like GN'R Lies, around 8 or 10 million copies worldwide within 2 or 3 years.

for starters CD is only going to be brought by the fans, and how many are there of those? there are a lot of people out there who only like Gn'R for AFD and thought the UYI albums were not worth buying.

So unless CD is packed with tracks that make for great singles and bring CD to the attention of the masses, then i have no idea how CD will sell.

I think CD will sell 5 million+ most artists are happy when they sell 1 million+ so it's not like Gn'R are going to fail? ;)

In the modern day, With downloading, i dont think it has any chance. It will do better than VR, but not much better.    :peace:

No chance! Not with people like yourself constantly trying to remind us.

People did not buy AFD or UYI because of Slash being in the band. They bought them because the music created by the band as a whole was spectacular. If thats the case again, just as many people will buy it. If not (as in the case of all projects Slash has been in outside of GNR) they won't.

One thing we have to remember about Velvet Revolver - they have two fan bases, the fans from Stone Temple Pilots and the Fans from GNR. That attributed largely to the sales of this record. With GNR we only have GNR fans, and like someone else mentioned, the "confused" who have no idea whats going on and are going to check out GNR for the first time.

/NorthiwndNS

Maybe because we want to see the band on the top of the world ;)

well stated...two fan bases AND more star power in that band.  They've got three from GNR and the lead singer from STP...CD will NOT sell more than Contraband.  Everyone I talk to says "oh yeah VR that's Scott Weiland and Slash" or "STP and Guns", whereas with the new "GNR" most are saying "there's no slash, that's not really GNR". 

So you see there is an identity crisis with the new "GNR"...and frankly most people are dissapointed Slash is no longer involved - to the point that they will not pay $75+ for a ticket to see Axl play with a back up cover band.

Like it or not, in retrospect, Slash was as equally big a reason Guns was so huge from 87-93.

it will sell less than every other gn'r album because times have changed as well as gn'r fans.

i think it will be on par with TSI as far as sales go....meaning it'll go platinum :peace:

please man,velvet revolver album have't had riaa certificate,so they didn't sell 3 milion

In a time of instant access to songs (i.e. downloading, YouTube, MySpace)...  I think that "Chinese Democracy" will sell around 3 million (U.S. sales)...  Mind you, that is still a big success... I don't really think very many albums will ever sell upwards of 10 million anymore (with a few exceptions, of course)... How many rock albums sold more that 5 million since 2000 (again, in U.S sales)?  Only a handful (does anyone have the exact numbers?)...  And out of those, most were albums by bands in their prime...  I hope it sells 20 million, but realistically, I'm going with 3 mil...

I?ll say it sells about 10 million copies international.

Albums dont sell anymore in the day and age of the internet.

So no, CD will sell 3 to 4 million I would guess in the US and that would be a HUGE success

With the way the leaks/demos sound I highly doubt it will even come close to AFD or UYI but I want to save my conclusion until I finish listening to the album.

The album will sell 3 - 4 million copies..then 20 million kids will download it

I dont think it will sell as well for a number or reasons

1.downloading
2. rock music is not as popular as it used to be
3. this is the one most people over look.  Appetite was available on vinyl, cassette and cd...it came out before cds went mainstream, so alot of people who owned the vinyl upgraded to cassette and then cd, thus buying possibly 3 or more copies of the record...the same can be said for the illusions, i owned the cassette versions before I bought the cds...now just because it wont sell as well as the Illusions or Appetite doesnt mean a thing...Axl spent 15 years making the album perfect, if he was concerned about album sales he would have recorded a quick follow up to the illusions,,,i think this record is going to be amazing

It won't come close to matching UYIsales in the states...  Maybe in the rest of the world..

Plus you have to figure in the fact that CD is not as good as AFD or UYI, hence sales will not be as high.

I'll save the bitter replies with replying to myself:

"How can you say that, you haven't even heard it!!"  Yeah well I've heard enough of it, its NOT as good.  Take away more talented guitar/songwriting people and replace with less talent and you have...well...less talent.

dude what are you talking about? fortus and bumblefoot can play circles around Slash...Its like the master Zakk Wylde said slash is good but he doesnt have the same chops as the greats....

don't know about UYI 1 and 2 but it will outsell contraband

First Day: i say at least 80,000-100,000

First Week: 200,000-400,000

First Few Months: Platinum

Eventually: 3x Platinum


i guess it all depends on how well its publicized, but those are my predictions

I agree with every prediction you just made actually.

Do you really think it hasn't been discussed before?

awesome
 :P

Sure it has. And now it's our turn!  : ok: :beer:

Merry Christmas to you though!

Edit - did you really write *locked* even though you're not a mod?? That's.....amusing...mmmmmmk then. Continue discussion in spite of the psuedo lock everyone!

(view the psuedo lock for yourself in the next post down...)

P.S. Any prediction for total international sales? I predict more success in Europe than the US.

Merry Christmas.

*locked*

It's entirely dependent on how it does outside of GNR's fanbase and other fans of 80s hard rock, etc.  If it gets hot with the MTV crowd, it could sell ten million.  If not, 2-3...maybe 5 eventually.

I think GnR' will break rock album sales in the first week.

3 x platinum at least

2 to 3 million.  I think GnR will need a monster hit to get the album out to the mainstream. 

Better could very well be that hit...

I'm an old GNR fan from 80s and must admit that it has taken time for the leaks to grow on me, especially with the expectations I have.  I really don't think GNR are ever going to reproduce what they had years ago. I would love it to happen but lets face it, it will take MASS media the way it used to be back in the 80s and 90s.  This can't happen in this day and age because the press are too interested in what the modern youth want to see and its not GNR and never will be Axls in his 40s now he is what Lemmy and Bon Scott were in the late 80s.  Axl's days have gone into a downward spiral just like the old greats like Bon Jovi, Iron Maiden (Although they get good reviews), Metallica, this goes on and on but you've heard and read the rumours about GNR not being able sell out their shows.  GNR are losing the small fan base with every year that passes. Most people here on the boards are new gunners that got into UYI I&II because there older siblings or parents listened to Appetite.

Jarmo did a vote a while back to see what the age groups are and most are kids that weren't old enough to drink a bud when Appetite was around.

I think they'll be lucky to shift a million. SO MUCH HOPING TO BE WRONG THOUGH! JUSt GETTING FED UP

If the critics don't like it, and there are no hits: 2-4 million
If the critics don't like it, but there are hits: 4-6 million
Critics love it, calling it one of the best albums ever, and you have several hits: 10+ million

Worldwide.

That's pretty much the best you can do these days.

Considering Josh Groban can sell 13 million copies of some stupid album... It's true, read it in the papers.
Anything is possible. It all lies in the singles.

Then how come nobody ever heard of Fortus or Bumblefoot before Axl selected them, and Slash has his own commercial. ?I am open to this new band and hope that the music will be great, but come on, lets get serious - Slash has written the riffs for Jungle, Paradise City, Sweet Child, Estranged, November Rain, and the list goes on - who cares about "chops" when you can write those riffs and solos. ?All Fortus and company do now is replicate what Slash wrote, its like saying I'm a better technical painter than Picasso because my picture is dead on and I improve a bit on it. ?Picasso came up with the idea!!!! ?

Maybe your right, who knows. Time will tell but lets face it Appetite is the reason we're here. ?Some may say its the Illusion albums but without Appetite the Illusion albums wouldn't have happened. Chin Dem has a lot to live upto and lets hope that Axl stops this perfectionism and just gets the album out regardless.

Who gives a F**K I just wanna hear the album and follow ups if there will be any but this postponed shit goes on and on and on and on and on its getting boring. ?I mean March 6th has to be the date now or I for one will tune in when a decade passes. Maybe then China will have its Democracy.

While all of your perceptions are fairly accurate, it doesn't take more than one or two great singles to make it right again.

A few examples:

Back In Black with Back In Black: A band who had replaced their vocalist got their biggest selling album solely because of great material.

Jefferson Starship with We Built This City: Got a great hit in the third incarnation of the band. The integrity of the 60s were gone, but that didn't matter.

Carlos Santana with Smooth and Maria Maria: Been away from the spotlight for I don't know how many years. Released an album with 2 major singles. On top of the world again.

Shaggy with I don't remember what: Bullshit artist with minor hits goes ahead and makes a very commercial album. 2 great singles, sold 10 million.

I doesn't matter how long you've been gone, or how much shit you've released or don't released. If you strike the general public with something catchy and fresh you are going to sell loads. And let's not forget that Mr. Axl Rose got a few advantages on the artists above. Both quality and reputation wise.

Better and The Blues are more than good enough to win the chicks and young kids over. For all we know there are even better songs planned to be released as singles. That's where the key lay for great sales.

EXACTLY! These guys are here because the others can't be. I will follow also and hope for the best but Guns have to get this shit out.

I stand corrected... I do however wish your right and hope this thing takes off but chances are slim to say the least.  Comparing Brian Johnson (Back In Black) to Bon Scott is a NO NO. Any ACDC fan would tell you that. Just because Back In Black did well doesn't mean that ACDC were better with him, would guns be better without Axl (i.e VR).  I'm not saying that GNR are hasbeens but mearly the fact that they can't get the old coverage they once had.

I think it will be lucky to go more than platinum. ?In this day and age it seems that you have to appeal to the TRL crowd or the Oprah watchers to get good sales. ?Unfortunately, GNR don't fit in any of those groups. ?If you look at the best selling albums over the last few years it has been by younger artists who appeal to younger demographics (Fall Out Boy, Panic at the Disco, Justin Timberlake) or artists who appeal to the Oprah watching soccer mom variety (Josh Groban, Rod Stewart). ?Generally, albums that critics like do not often sell many copies. ?There is a built in fanbase for GNR but just because it exists does not mean that all those people will buy the album. ?Quite a few may be interested but will choose to download it, while others may be turned off by the fact that Slash, Duff, et al are no longer in the group. ?I would suggest downloading will be the biggest hindrance to this album selling more than 1X platinum. ?In this day and age platinum is becoming rarer.

excellent point.  and as the list shows albums that are really stellar withstand the test of time to become the greatest selling of all time.  i would bet there are some yet-unknown instant classics on chinese democracy...

Bro, please.

I'll help the record sales and will definitly be buying the CD.
BUt I haven't bought a CD in 3 years. how do I need to when I can download the songs. TRuth is that no album will ever sell 10 million copies again. Even Appetite with the technology today would struggle to sell 10 million records in this climate of computers and internet.

You also need to subtract the die hard old-school GNR fans who won't pay for something that doesn't have 4/5ths of the original lineup. As much as I love Axl Rose, there is definitly a debate that can be made that this album is not a "Guns N' Roses" album and that if indeed he put out the same music under his own name or a name different than GNR, it would struggle to do better than plantinum.

I will only say this once:
Chinese Democracy's record sales will be a success if it sells more or same what the GNR Greatest Hits 1987-1994 sold.
3X PLATINUM
Chinese Democracy record sales will be adequate if it sells the same at Velvet Revolver's Contraband
2x PLATINUM
Chinese Democracy's record sales will be a failure if it sells less than Velvet Revolver's Contraband
1x PLATINUM

I certainly wish it could change the world and sell 5x Platinum. To me, that would be remarkable. If it sells more than 5x Platinum, this record will need quite a few more surprises than the 5 songs we have heard.
At this rate, I say the album will go 2x Platinum. There are many wildcard factors that will determine if it sells more or less. But GNR is such a great thing and Axl is such an idol and inspiration to me, that I will buy the album, which I never do anymore - pay $15 for a CD for the CD.
 8)
MNW

I'm not comparing anything. I know what the majority of the AC/DC die hards feel, and I certainly know some of the resentment among GN'R die hards. Quality is subjective, and change in style and sound will always be debated.

But we're talking major sales here. We're talking the average record buyer. He does not give a shit if Slash has left the band or if it doesn't sound like old GN'R. Why? Because he rarely remembers any of it. What matters to him is catchy material. GN'R got catchy material.

I predict 1.000.000 copies in the first two weeks.
I also predict that this will be the best selling Guns N' Roses album.
But it will never be in that top 10 list.
just my two cents.

You think it will sell more than 45 million copies? You taking bets?

im a huge ac/dc fan and yes while i do prefer bon you can't deny brian, he is as good as a singer as anyone. back in black did well because of its material, in my opinion it is the best album ever released along with appetite and powerage. if better gets the promo and airplay it deserves then there is no reason chi dem wont sell like hotcakes just my 2 cents

3-5 million copies

People out there are desperate for rock. Nickelback the worst band ever is selling millions of records and that is the worst crap i have ever heard in my life! VR debuted at #1 and went on to sell 3mil plus copies with little promotion and one decent first single. Since Axl is very smart he will use better as his first single (which is a much better 'no pun intended' track than anything on contraband) and it will imediately be a rock radio favorite. With that track to build momentum the sky is the limit for CD. The hunger for a record like this is being very underestimated by everyone in the media. I think even in this internet crazy time CD will still sell over 5mil domestically and probably 8-10mil worldwide. There are sooooooo many GNR fans in the states, europe, and south america alone that the album is destined for success. I also think it will be very well reviewed which certainly won't hurt.

very well put my friend
i couldnt have said it any better

wow this post made me giggle like a crazy person ;D

I really hope and wish what you said becomes true!!

7 million

Given the concert reviews GnR are getting - especially the positive ones posted here - I imagine the world will be getting a wake up call when Democracy hits.  As critics say, this is far from a nostalgia tour, and Axl & Gnr are relevant rock and roll powerhouses in today's world.  Old fans will quickly remember why they loved the band, and new fans will be pulled in by the new songs, and then discover the older GnR material.

The album will do exceptionally well.

CHINESE DEMOCRACY will be astronomical. The album will change the face of music it will be thriller x 2 i'm guessing 30 million within five years all together about 37 million and it will continue after that because people will be listening to it over and over and over and over and over again that it will wear out and they'll have to buy more copies of it. Thats my guess/opinion. i would Love to be right :yes:

Heres to a CHINESE DEMOCRACY in March of '07 :beer:

Chinese Democracy would have sold very well if released in 1994.   It would have still did fairly well in 2002.   With the leaks I think it would have been maybe 3-5x platinum worldwide if released in '06.  At this point I really think it will struggle to make it past 2x platinum.  This was the year but once again many people have been left pissed off or alienated.  I love GNR and think the music is great but I am also a hardcore fan like everyone else here.  We forum members make up only a small percentage of the potential fanbase who will buy the album after being put off for years.  I don't mean this as a negative or "anti-GNR" post I'm simply stating what I believe to be true.  Three million max unless there are some real hidden jewels that top what we have heard.

 :yes:I think that when this Cd dose come out it will Extremely well
do to the long wait people have been waiting 10 years to say they have a new
Guns n Roses CD. When I saw Hollywood Rose Cd came out I rushed out to buy it
& I don't remember any publicity behind it so if this gets a video & a TV commercial 
I have no doubt it will do very well but when it comes out we will see. : ok:

My only venture is that CD will sell more in it's first year then AFD did in it's first year.

At the same time, I'm not sure you can base your sales estimation by your own feelings on the album and the band.  There's probably 10 to 20 thousand hardcore fans who will by this album regardless.  After that, the success of Chinese Democracy depends on the general public.  Quite frankly, the general public doesn't care about GNR like they did in 1988-93.  If you look at most albums that take off recently, a lot of it has to do with not the first single, but how strong the second and possibly the third singles.  Evanesence, The Killers, Coldplay (their second album), the last Green Day album; all of these albums really took off after a 2nd and 3rd high charting single.  You could even throw Appetite in that category.  Had the label only released Sweet Child as a single, the band might have gone down as a one-hit wonder.  Chinese Democracy is going to need a stream of at least 2 or 3 really good singles to a) bring back the audience; b) overcome those who will automatically discount the album for numorous reasons (ie, just Axl, the amount of time it took to produce, etc). 

Ultimately, this album will succeed or fail based on the strength of the material, as mentioned to Axl in his letter.  We're all probably going to love it, but we're not all going to be buying 10 000 copies each.

Cheers,

Andrew

Good point, Andrew.  It is not so much the first single that will make this album but rather the subsequent singles.  I think the other songs will need to be much stronger than the leaks we've heard.  Don't get me wrong, I like the new songs but I have been an obsessive fan for about 15 yrs now.  The general record buying, radio listening public probably will not feel the same way.  For example, my brother owns all of GNR's records.  He is not familiar with any of the new songs and when I played them for him he just shrugged.  Chinese Democracy was the only song that he really liked while the others were just average in his opinion.  He is the type of person who will need to be won over by the new songs in order to turn CD into the mammoth success we all hope it will be.

A couple of millions. Or more than Velvet Revolver.

I think it will go maybe 2X platinum and the first million will happen with in the first month. After the novelty wears off people will probably just d/l it.

My guess is 50 billion.

That would be nice, but considering there aren't 50 billion people  ;)

i think it will sell really well.  it will definitely outsell velvet revolver in my opinion.

guns n' roses are still as popular as ever .  millions of people still follow the band who have been there since AFD (me being one of them) and there are so many younger fans now as well (it warms me heart it does).  these people are all gonna buy the cd and i think the band will gain new fans or buyers or whatever because of the name.  guns n' roses is a name know to millions and millions of people and if all of a sudden, people who are not fans and don't know about CD, see the name on store shelves i really do think they will buy it.  out of intrigue if nothing else.

may not make it to the list at the beginning of this thread but it won't be too far away imo.

all my opinion only.

It will probably sell more than Velvet revolver, so...maybe between 2 and 3 millions copies!

well that's what Velvet Revolver sold for contraband  :yes:. I think Guns are goin' to sell a little more due to the name and all the years waitin' for the album  :yes:, My thoughts are on about 4 or 5 millions  :o

Didnt the greatest hits sell a good 4/5 Million worldwide? It was number 1 across europe too.

I think CD will outsell that in a shorter space of time.

i say 3 million tops, the days of selling unbelievable amounts are gone due to the internet and cd writing, also the fact GnR have been out of the limelight for a long time.

i thimk 3 mill is great for current times tho!!!

Yeah, I was there. After Oasis left the stage it took more than an hour until Guns started their show. It was almost 2 a.m. when they hit the stage and no one left. And most of the crowd has been there since 4 p.m. With a proper promotion and a tour to Brazil, this album will sell big here.

:: Vicente ::

It's going to be a massive success!!!!! :yes: : ok: :beer: :peace: 8)

10+ MILLION copies easily and possibly surpassing everything GNR has done to date!!! :yes:

Fucking Awesome!!! :yes:

A big FUCK OFF!!! to all the negative assholes on here too!!! :rant: Go fuck yourselves and stay the fuck off our board!!!!! :rant:

Axl rules!!! :smoking:

Who cares if theres not 50 billion people! You ca still sell 50 billion records  :hihi: 5 each, duh  : ok:

at least one : mine.

I think it's going to depend, largely on how the "mass market" audience views both the comeback, and the material they're exposed to (ie: the radio stuff).

It has the POTENTIAL to sell like hotcakes.....

It also has the potential to sell only to us die hards.

Which scenario plays out is going to be very dependant on a VERY fickle audience...

A lot of this is gonna ride on radio play and promotion though right? if it aint promoted right it aint gonna sell!

Sure, that's going to be the jumping off point.

But the album, itself, has both a mythical quality to it's name...and a stigma attached to it because of how long it's taken to create.

So it's all going to ride on how the mass market sort of "takes" to the promotion and radio play material.  Do they scoff and laugh and ignore it?  Or does the pent up demand, and hopefully strong material, get them off their keisters to BUY the album.

I just don't know (and I'm sure I'm not the only one) which scenario will play out.  It's hard to gauge.  I'd like to think that the GH sales, as a metric, shows that the audience would be willing to buy new material, too, and give Guns a "second chance".  But I just don't know...and this latest "setback" of saying the album would be out this year but missing the target, however explainable (and, keep in mind, it doesn't bother me a whit)...I don't know how well that's going to play to the public, either, given how widely the comments were covered in the press.

We'll all just have to wait and see.  I'll be at the music store, when it opens, the day CD is released.  Other than that...this album sort of defies predictions, I think, so nothing is a very safe bet.

After reading Axl's letter, I think it is gonna have decent promotion and will at least get people interested. But there's also a lot of negativity around the Guns name and people tend to laugh when they are mentioned. So only the quality of the songs can bend that around and I think that's exactly what is gonna happen!
My guess would be 6.8 million worldwide.

i think it depends alot on the promotion and the music itself. sure, we may like the songs but the average fan will make or break the album.
the fact that they had a lot of years between the last album with the original line up will help i think because a big part of the fans that liked gnr in the early 90's are not that much into the music so the new line-up stands a chance and there won't be as much people saying this is not gnr because slash duff etc. are not here.
and the young fans that discovered the band during its hiatus aren't that tied to the old line-up and can let go easily.

i'm not trying to get this into an old vs new but that will be one of the most important comparisons when the album is out whether we like it or not. but if the music is good a lot of people will turn gnr way.

it can go 5x platinum if the songs are strong.

I do wonder who will buy most percentage of the album, new, young fans or the old fans? Not sure how much the young folks are into rock these days, but perhaps Guns can change that!

I think it will do 4 million in the US in short-term (if VR can move 2 million units, I think GnR can do double), maybe 5 million if there is a true hit single.

3 million, maybe 3.5

picture EVERYBODY here, then EVERYBODY at mygnr, then EVERYBODY whose generally intrested, trust me their out there and i know a hand full of die hard GNR fans that don't post on nay board at all.

i used to be worried about sales for this thing, but after thinking in those terms it'll do fine... esp. if they throw in a dvd or something sick like that.

I think first week sales are gonna be about 450,00 - 600,000. That is a high number, but this is unprecedented. No other record has had this much anticipation for so long (bar Brian Wilson's 'Smile'). New fans, old fans, casual fans, curious people are all gonna buy this record. Teenies who want to be cool rockers will buy it. 80's hair-metal slackers will buy it for curiosity's sake. We'll all buy it. I think it could end up seing about 5-7 million sold...

Some people are just jumping to the conclusion that "CD won't sell too good because there is no SLASH and co."But thats not the case.It all depends on the single and the promotion.As you all know that knowbody knew who where GUNS N' ROSES before they release AFD but they still manage to come on top.So now they(NEW GN'R) are in the same situation,this is the new band who wants to prove that they are capable of retaining the legacy of OLD GN'R not over  selling AFD or any other GN'R record.So rightnow no one not even AXL himself can predict how many copies does CD is going to sell.

actually, NR and Estranged were both written entirely by Axl. He thanked Slash for his soulful playing in the liner notes of Estranged....and later mentioned in an interview that it was extremely hard to get slash to play on them. he then said that it was because a)slash didn't write any of it and b)Slash didn't approve of the genre.

I agree, although I actually think your first week sales are low.? IF -- and it's a big IF -- this thing is marketed properly, and what I mean by that is: (1) an advance Rolling Stone cover story with Axl, (2) lots of print, radio, and VH1/MTV ads, (3) good single promotion and noticeable video, and (4) good advance reviews (and, yes, sadly, just like many movie review, good reviews can be bought),? THEN I think you could see first week sales in the 750,000 week, maybe even 1 million if the buzz grows out of hand.? I don't see any problems with out-of-the-box sales (again, IF you market this thing properly), but the longer-term concern is whether there is enough hit material to sustain the sales up into the 4-6 million unit range.? To me, the big problem with the material I have heard so far is that only Better has a good shot at crossing over outside the mainstream GnR audience, and even that is tougher sell (if they cut out the middle bridge section, it would be a more likely crossover hit).? Everything else, from The Blues onward, are all excellent songs, but they are not radio-friendly songs and, sadly, in this day and age of hip-hop and pop dominance, I don't see the diehard GnR and general rock fans pushing this album much beyond 3 million give or take.? ?I can't think of any significant hard rock album moving more than 4 million units in the a long time -- the closest is that godawful Nickleback album, and maybe Green Day.? Velvet Revolver moved about 2 million over the course of 18 months or so, but there was a massive push by the record company on that album (at least with respect to a hardrock album).

So, this has nothing to do with the merits of the album. I do NOT think it will be a failure artistically and I think it will end up in the 3-4 million range in the US, which I think is a real success -- Universal will not feel the same (nor should they).? BUT do keep in mind that this album will do MUCH MUCH better internationally.? Remeber, GnR is a much bigger draw in Canada, europe, south america and even parts of Asia.? As a result, the worldwide sales will? be much better than in the US, where hard rock is not a big mover saleswise.

the new single will be VERY important.
And i think it's a very difficult dissision for Axl.
I mean, what if it flops? will many people buy the album than?

Let's hope...

I'd guess 500,000 the first week, maybe even 750,000-1 million with very good promotion. Overall probably around 4-6 million.

I'd love it to do better, but the above is what I'm expecting...

I agree with the 6 mill world wide. And I agree it'll push AFD up a few notches. I think of Chinese Democracy as more of a fans only album if anything and don't expect it to do too well amongst non-fans. Especially in the Hip-Hop atmosphere we have these days.

This is an interesting topic to look at, given the fact that the album HAS been released now

They might break 600k stateside by year's end ...

The album sold 3.7 million copies worldwide and something like 560 000 copies in the US. It was the 12th top seller album of 2008 despite being released only 5 weeks before the end of the year.
We shall see how touring helps Chinese Democracy in a few months.

14th to be precise :P

can't find a post by me.  the topi wasn't too interesting for me I guess  :-\

ıt has already sold almost 3 million copies worldwide to date...ıt's hard  to say  but ıt will  end up selling somewhere between 4-5 milion copies ı guess....

First of all..Thriller 26 million???  Hello!!!  Thriller has sold by FAR more copis than any album in history....58 million.  This is a world wide figure.  Appetite has sold nearly 25 million.  I'm assuming you're talking United states figures only?  Can't imagine why.  Illusions are in the neighbourhood of 20-25 million I think but not certain.

Chinese Dem will only sell if stations actually start playing it!!!  I live in Australia and work in a place where the radio is going all day every day and I have not heard a single new song!!!  Bad.

Unfortunately, there is just no reality to this new album because the majority of the public know nothing of the new band, despite the fact that they have been around fo years now.  You have to realise that the original Guns existed in a time where MTV blitzed the small screen constantly with Guns videos and kids were fucking crazy for new albums and they bought them by the millions. 

And dont forget....considering that Guns have (as far as the general public is concerned) been dormant for over a decade, and have not released anything for even longer.  Selling as much as they have is a feat that I dont think any other artist could ever hope to do.  Maybe Michael Jackson or Zeppelin etc, but that would likely be it.  So yeah, well done Guns.  My guess is Chinese Dem will hit ten million in five years.

Appetite For Destruction (1987)  Total Worldwidesales       : 29.800.000
GNR Lies (1988)                          Total Worldwidesales        : 10.100.000
Use Your Illusion 1 (1991)           Total Worldwidesales        : 17.800.000
Use Your Illusion 2 (1991)           Total Worldwidesales        : 18.600.000
The Spaghetti Incident ? (1993)   Total Worldwidesales       : 5.700.000
Live Era '87-'93 (1999)                 Total Worldwidesales        : 2.400.000
Greatest Hits (2004)                    Total Worldwidesales        : 8.800.000
Chinese Democracy (2008)          Total Worldwidesales        : 3.000.000
 
www.worldwidealbums.net

that sucks for chinese democracy and live era!

The figures aren't that accurate... The count for one of the "Use Your Illusion" albums is the estimated count from 1997.

Not saying "Chinese Democracy" has sold that much more, just saying a bit more presumably.

16~22 yr olds vs a 6 month old baby

Think about how many years those albums have been selling vs Chinese Democracy.

I'm surprised Live Era hasn't done better than that

Live Era has its moments, but its a pretty crappy album overall....

Also, back in 1988 the music market had no problem with piracy. : ok:

It is essentially the closest we're ever going to get to hearing a re-recorded "Appetite For Destruction" or "Use Your Illusion".

"Nightrain", "You Could Be Mine", "Estranged" without crowd noises, could've made it one of the best compilations ever...

You're exactly right, and thats the problem... It dosent feel like a live album, not to mention half the performances we already had access to...

You know most average people who like music don't even know that Chinese Democracy was released by G&R? About three months after it's release I told at least four friends about the new release and they didn't even know about the new cd. So take that ratio and apply it to mass population of music listeners and the result is that most people don't even know that the cd is out there.  :rofl:

Recording Industry Association of America on February 03, 2009. Chinese Democracy has already sold nearly three million copies.

Today Is, May 20.

HBK *

AFD sold 1 million albums a month in the US from the time the video SCOM was release (about mid year, 1988) to the end of the year-

unless CD has a single with a similar impact; I doubt Democracy will have the legs that AFD did, and continues to have ???

They blew it with the video and promotion for Better.

Now maybe twat as a single would work. with a great video.

Its not too late for Better as WTTJ was re-released 3 times so they can milk it if they decide to do more aggresive promotion including a tour.  That said, today's environment is much different then 1987 through 1993.  GN'R was built on MTV and without that outlet they really need radio support...that means radio promotions and interviews.  The music is there, but getting a single on rock radio, let alone top 40 is more difficult then ever.  Most rock radio stations play more classic rock then new stuff and top 40, forget about it unless you're Daughtry or Nickelback.  But then there's Green Day.  They've had great sustainability and actually are bigger now then ever.  So it is possible for Guns to get huge again but Axl will need to play nice and the fact of the matter is he may not care to and if he's happy having gotten the album out and eventually touring without other promotion then we as fans need to live with that and respect his decision.  Clearly its not all about money for him. 

"New" band,  you can now download for free..3,7 million copies sold are (to me ) a great figure.  :peace:

whats surprising to me is Greatest hits sold so well and it being released as late as it was.  By those numbers, you woulda thougt Democracy would have done much better.  Maybe the leaks, the streaming, and overall Axl backlash hurt sales rather than lack of promotion.

I don't think you can make any comparison between the Greatest Hits album's sales and Chinese Democracy's sales.

Ali

Yeah you can, one has hits, the other, not so much (at least to the general public).

Cheers,

Andrew

Funny, but no.  Not what I meant anyway.

Ali

everybody has an opinion : ok:
who's to say mine is more more vaild than yours (other than me ;)