Here Today... Gone To Hell!

Imagine you are a 15 year old rock fan.  You grew up through grunge, probably listen to Zep and Stones and Sabbath, listen to Audioslave and maybe even own a copy of AFD.  You walk into Bestbuy and look in the new releases and see Chinese Democracy.  Most teenage rock fans couldnt tell you what Chinese Democracy is, some who do probably just have heard of it.  Maybe the CD will rouse their interest and theyll pick it up, but CD's are about 17 dollars at Bestbuy and most rock fans dont buy them unless they are fans of the band.  If hes a real rock fan he will probably go home and look for it on Morpheus, most fans will probably dismiss it.  Many people will have no idea what it is, or have no interest in what they deem as an 80's band.  There will be no single on radio, and there will be no video on mtv, vh1 or mtv2.  No teenager blind buys (or i guess deaf buys) albums anymore, its too expensive and they can dl the music for free.  This is the rock fan we are talking about too.  The non rock teenager will have no idea what chinese democracy is, and maybe only recognize a few gnr songs.

MTV doesnt care about GNR or music anymore, VH1 wont message it except maybe on some obscure rock show.  Most teenagers dont read the papers, some read music magazines, but thats rare, a lot go to sites like Pitchfork and such, but that wont mention GNR.  What media unit is going to pump this CD.  THE UNITED STATES MAINSTREAM DOES NOT CARE ABOUT GNR ANYMORE.  The key to promotion is by getting the word out there to as many people as possible.  To make GNR "cool" again, by releasing a powerful gritty single, with a video having a concert like feel, relying on new songs on the tour and not relying on old songs.  If every person who sees GNR in concert this tour buys an album the album would maybe do well enough for the band to stay together...MAYBE. If GNR plays 80% old songs, why are fans going to buy the new songs if the band does not act like they are even strong enough to play in concert. 

If the non promotion strategy is in effect it sounds like the label isnt happy with the cd and does not believe in it.  It sounds like they are cutting their loss with this stupid "no promotion will garner promotion" idea.  Limp Bizkit did the same thing and flopped, they released the same worthless material (minus borland) and paid radio stations to play it and went several times platinum.  We live in an era where exposure is everything.  People are all followers. 

While most cds are bought by people 45+, the next strongest demographic is 10-18.  This is a crucial market that must be tapped for the band to be successful with this cd, and this strategy will fail to generate support in that demographic. (stats come from RIAA)

I dunno last time I imagined myself a 15 yr old... the cops came and I was busted on that "To Catch A Predator" show. That sucked... they took my ccomputer with the GNR downloads and children, my name and dignity and worst off I never got that date... Thanks for reminding me about being 15.

if you are 15 years old today then you would have barely been born when "grunge" was hitting it big.  i don't think i even started to really discover my own musical tastes until i was an early teenager, up until that point my parents had control of the radio and record player(i was born in '77).

You are correct. I'm 16 and the first CD I bought was Smash Mouth. Either way, the poster is right. Besides hardcore fans, no one is going to drop $15 on a CD they haven't heard anything about.

Let me ask the obvious question - if no one cares, then how did GH sell over 3 million copies?

I'm 15 and have been following Chinese Democracy stories for 2 years.

1.5 million bought it because Slash was on it.. So take them right out of the equation. Then those that bought it because they didn't have AFD but wanted SCOM PC & WTTJ, Patience, NR etc on 1 album and you're looking at a target audience of about 1 million..


Also, where is 3 million coming from all of the sudden?? A few weeks ago people were making the same arguements about how it sold 2 million.

Thats a good point. Tons of teenagers have just bought the Greatest Hits over the last two years, and now when they see that a new Guns album is in the stores they will probably be pretty curious to check it out.

Lets face it, if anytime is right its now. I have seen a lot more GN'R fans around these last 2 years then say 1999-2003. Its the right time, when its put out, its going to sell.

Looks like GnR is going with word of mouth marketing. This worked for Zeppelin in the 70's.

Hey I'm cool with that. I already do tons of promoting by word of mouth for the tour and shit anyway, so I'll do it for the album too.

I pretty much talk about GN'R at least once with everyone that I encounter.

I was born in 89 and i dont remeber really getting into music till i was ike 10 so it would of been 99.... and all crappy music started in 99.. so i looked into the past thats how i found GNR

17 bucks?

What best buy do you shop at?  Cds at my best buy are like 12, 14 bucks.

15 year old teens are probably more up to date than you think.  They grew up with the internet, and if they're into rock music then they're going to know something about Gn'R and Chinese Democracy...

The casual fans don't, but the more hardcore rock fans would.

You should research the numbers yourself if you have questions. I'm pretty sure that I'm right, though. As for the Slash fans, I thought we were talking about 15 year-olds - they don't know who Slash is. Secondly, I think the "cult of Slash" that you're referencing here is smaller than you apparently think it is - that's a matter of opinion, I suppose.

I'd say original GnR fans are 50/50 Axl vs. Slash, but I'll give you the teens don't necessarily take sides soo much.. More like whoever puts something out is who they like best right now. Still, I don't think alot of 3 million would buy this record if it landed in stores unannounced. Even if it adverstised in Magazines & Websites I don't think alot would buy the album without hearing a good song on the radio. Sure, us fansite readers will, but really, how many of us are there, 100,000 max!! They need to announce it & more than anything get some radio play. : ok:

I don't agree with the general ideia that Teenage Rock Fan are just a bunch of publicity consumption magets, if they were they would be listening to hip hop, if the album is good mouth to mouth will sell, that's how bands that don't have air play or MTV coverage sell out concerts and do a preatty good living out of it. Why would generic forums on Rock music talk about GNR if there's nothing to talk about ? (except for the hard core fans like us, and were not that few world over).

I didn't boght GH but i'm a Slash fan, actually you could count me twice, in the 1.5 million slah's fans and on the 1.5 million that also liked the rest, i'm 33 and i don't take sides either, and i'll assure you i'll buy CD the day it comes out

I'm 33 too :beer:

Like you I'll buy the album the day it's released no matter what. But think back to your friends from High School & how many of them you qould guess will automatically buy it?? For me, I'd guess not many of them (probably just me). Now, if GnR put out a good single, and a little bit of hype behind it, I'd guess 3 or 4 of them might also buy it.

A good single would definitely help. Maybe management is taking the internet buzz as more significant than it is. It's a bit like that movie Snakes on a Plane - it was all over the internet, and based on that, should have been a huge success. However, the general public who is not surfing the net all the time was unaware of the hype - consequently it was only a minor hit.

If they can get people to the concerts, I think that the album will sell - the problem is that the two things may be an interdependent chicken/egg situation. We'll see.

The European tour was marketing and creating a vibe, Axl letting himself be photographed is marketing...so, either they don't have the money to do usual heavy promotion or  they have something up their sleeves, or they just don't want to go that way or all of the above. they could market it til you couldnt stand it anymore and flop, and you could just do direct promotion to main public audiance and do great. Marketing is not an exact science.
They can create a hype after the release day.
Most of my High school mates are into Rock music, if the album is good they'll buy, after doing the some thing 15 years old, dowload some musics get the vibe, and if they like it, here in Portugal,  all the way to Fnac the'll go  ;D

That's a good point.

when i was in high school everyone knew gnr but half the kids i knew were into janes addiction so they hated gnr and they wouldn't have bought the cd anyhow. people will hear about it. if its good, it will sell.

I couldnt have put it better myself. I agree 100%. This album will sell, But not as many as what HTGH board readers think.

Are you making a generalization about board members? There is a lot of disagreement here, especially when it comes to topics like how much CD will sell. Some people think it will re-define rock music, some people think it will be a complete flop, and the more realistic members just want to hear it regardless of sales, which are impossible to predict in advance.

Teenagers arent as dumb and oblivious as most want to believe.


I was buying GNR records when i was 8 years old.....


I think older people get this superiority complex and they think they are the only true fans but that is very very far from the truth.


Besides GNR can release a single and video the same day of the album. Have a triple Release.

Album,Single,Video all at the same time. 

This will create a huge buzz that releasing it through ordinary channels wouldnt.

Gosh, that was insulting.? :hihi:
All kids in the 9th grade (14-15 in age) at my school know who GNR are. All my friends that are rock fans know about GNR releasing a new album. (maybe its because I mention it enough). But i will buy CD the day it comes out and to all the kids like the ones you described, who cares about them. I personally hate those kids who are judjmental F***heads, as Axl once said, and think GNR is not cool. It aint about GNR being cool, or the fans being cool, but that music on Chinese Democracy is pretty darn cool if you ask me.

that's kinda judgemental of YOU...

its not judjmental to call a judjmental person judjmental, if they are infact judjmental towards everything including the personal that calls them judgmental by calling them judjmentall aswell.

way too many judmentals in that sentance.

yeah im 15 and grunge was pretty much gone by the time i started getting into music.

My perception is that the teenagers of today pretty much view GN'R the same way I and my buddies viewed Led Zep and ACDC in the early 1990's (I'm exactly 30)... great bands we wish we had been around for (in their prime)... and definitely ready to drop cash on (Led Zep: Box Set and ACDC: Razor's Edge). Of course, we didn't have the "download" option... and that may depress CD sales quite a bit. But I am confident that the interest in GN'R is there amongst teenage rock fans... and if it's a great album... it will sell very well.

Ok, Well I normally couldnt care less whether or not the CD sold, but it needs to sell if you want a large tour and if you want more music to come out.

Yes there are bands that make good livings off of word of mouth sales, but they dont spend 14 years and 13 million dollars working on one CD.  The reason why Indy bands and Indy films dont need large promotions is because they dont need to do that well to make money.

Maybe its Columbus Ohio, but I was at the Drive By Truckers show last friday and i was talking to a bunch of people fans and crew alike and GNR was mentioned and many of them had no idea that a new album would be out this year, most just thought it was a myth.  These are all like 30 year old midwestern rock fans, every last one of them probably owns at least one GNR album, so this is the bread and butter fan and they have no clue that a cd is coming out, they ahve not heard the leaks, a few of them had seen the new gnr live in 2002 and were "not impressed."  The fact is if you do not get the message out to the fanbase that this CD is something they MUST buy then no one will buy it.

GNR is not Led Zepplin or the Stones, the reason why they were so respected to people who grew up in the 80's is because 1) They were pretty much still around, or at least less removed than GNR is now 2) They were openly idolized and praised by the media 3) They were full bands.  When guys from Zep or the Stones would do solo stuff it never did as good and it was ALWAYS advertised.  Its not like Ozzy on his own relied on word of mouth, to announce to the world that he was back and doing his own thing he made himself as public of a figure as possible.

Rock, contrary to what people on these boards are saying, more than doubles the sales of any other type of music.(RIAA)  Of course rock is used loosely, but most teenagers would list themselves as rock fans.  They buy their cds based on things they see, they see the Panic! at the Disco video and go out and buy the CD.  They hear TOOL on the radio and see the ads for new cds and go out and buy it.  They do not just see an album by a band they saw on behind the music and buy it.

I know a ton of people who are GNR fans and I am sure there are teens who like GNR, but if they do not hear the new music, if they do not see Axl or even worse, if they do not know there is new music they will not buy the album, the band will break up and GNR will be dead until a reunion with the original band in 2014.

There is no plan.  People who argue that this is all some grand plan are insane.  Everything GNR management has done over the last 14 years has been completely reactionary.  Axl gets no good press, there is no buzz at least not in Columbus Ohio.  Most fans know about the new GNR by what behind the music said and from the VMA performance, neither of those mediums were very Axl friendly.

Ask yourself this, in 1999 if Steven Tyler, Robert Plant, Eddie Van Halen, Mic Jagger or David Lee Roth released a solo album with no promotion do any of you actually think the album would sell more than maybe 2,000,000 records?  Most of these people have done solo albums and they all did pretty bad.  I know CD isnt a solo album, but that is how it is percieved by the mainstream audience.

People say there is no promotion for the album, but what abour rollingstone always talking about it the last few weeks in the site and now in the magazine? Kerrang also talked about it, the mlb is advertising this tour, they made a sold out european tour, where they played some of the new song...I mean, I know we dont know the release date yet, but this is a buzz that everyone I know that is a music fan knows about!

Once CD comes out i bet there will be lots of publicity, from universal, and free publicity due to the buzz that the most expensive album is finally out. I dont expect (and i cont care) if its number 1 in the first week...but i know it will be on top for a long time. AFD wasnt number 1 in the first months...I think maybe the idea here is to promote this band fot what it is today and not what it was in the early 90's...this way we can all see how good people reacted to this new GnR

take it easy...

i dunno if its fair to say mainstream american doesnt care about gnr anymore, all they have done is toured in the last year...and that was aknowelaged..but what else can they say? do you expect them to make it news whenever axl shits? they need an album. then you will see mainstream coverage

Mainstream media barely covered the tours, nor did it push at all Oh My God.  The back pages of RS and Kerrang is not major publicity.  The tours have not done that well.  People dont understand that music alone does not sell.  It is all about a gimmick, great music might make someone a decent living, but crap music plus great image will sell better everyday.  GNR has the music, from the demos and the concerts we all can tell it is there, but to give no publicity and to allow the media to pain Axl as just a psycho, fat, old, collagen injected, braided hair singer form the 80's will not sell albums.  If you dont think thats what the media does then you are blind or do not watch television anymore.  You need something other than the album release to change things, there has to be at least a single and airplay.

There is no bonus for just releasing the album.  It is a complete negative.  It is not original, it negates all the hype, hardcore fans will get the album, but theyll buy it either way.  It would just open the door to more bad press. A week after the tuesday that it is released GNR will be number 55 on Billboard and the press it will get will be a little blurb in the variety section in most newspapers that reads "13 million dollars wasted: most expensive album of all time, "Guns N' Roses'" Chinese Democracy came out this week it was 14 years in the making and wound up 55th on the charts.  New question will be whether Democracy will come to China before the inevitable GNR reunion."  Why just provide fodder.  Just promote it, release a cd release a video, let people hear the music so that it can speak for itself.

and people will hear the music. The question here is that probably there will be no single/video before Cd release...but once its released im sure we will have videos, singles, lots of publicity, etc.. Read my post before, and dont worry so much...jesus...

Well I am soon 19 and the only thing I remember about grunge when it was big is that Biker Mice From Mars listened to it. Guess cartoons do teach you something afterall  :hihi:

It's going to be hard to dispel some of these myths about Axl, and there really isn't much to be done about it. Frankly, I don't think he's that concerned about it - he's not going to be broke, no matter what happens. If the album is the album he wanted to make - the sound that was in his head- then it's a success. Of coourse, we all want it to do well, but if major sales had been his primary objective, it seems pretty obvious that he would have done a few things differently.

The other thing about public perception is that it has a short memory - especially among teenage rock fans(the demographic that this thead is discussing, I believe). Many of them weren't old enough to even pay attention to the 2002 VMA's.

First of all your argument makes no sense and does not address anything I said. ?It does not address fodder for negative press, or any benefit of not having a single or video. ?Dont worry? ?Its a message board dude, people discuss issues, if you dont want to then dont come on a message board. ? Although you refuse to address anything I said ill mention directly what you said.

1. And people will hear the music. ?If music is dropped in a best buy and no one buys it and there is no single on the radio, no vidio on mtv, vh1 or youtube, how will people hear it (unless they dl it which negates any sales.
2. The question is whethere there will be no single/video before cd releas. No, that isnt the question that is the fact that I was assuming for my post. ?Hopefully it will not be true, but i was discussing this as if it was a known fact since it has been highly rumored.
3. Once it is released we will have singles/videos. ?Now this is a huge assumption, what tells you that. ?It would seem logical, but nothing management has done recently has been logical. ?Also, this does not address my point that releasing an album that will be "watched" by story hungry press, with the intent that it will fail at first is insane. ?The press want Axl to fail, they want the cd to do bad, why give them ammo. ?The press kicks people when they are down and loves a crash and burn story and a 13 million dollar album debuting at 55 fits that. ?Albums that cost millions to make do not come out without press because albums that cost that much are expected to debut at number one, when they do not the word of mouth that spread is "that album sucks."
4. Lots of publicity. Again a huge assumption. ?Axl is not on the top of the world, he is not a J.D. Salingeresque recluse either. ?He, in many peoples minds is a washed up 80's singer. ?He is in his 40's. ?Many people see what happened to GNR as a tragic even for rock music. Unless given reason to believe that this is the "Savior" of rock the media will not promote it, they will look to shoot it down. ?If the album sells miserably they will just either write it off or blast it. ?Most record buyers dont buy based on reviews, in my teens I dont remember ever even reading a review of an album. ?

Simply put, give me an example of this strategy working or give me a benefit of it. ?No publicity will garnish publicity is untrue, it just wreaks of defeat.

Somebody took their negative pills this morning.

Wow great comment, ill take that as an inability to answer my question.

Actually a lot of people are aware that there some sort of new albulm, even people i know who dont really like the band.

bunch of gromits

Could you phrase the question in a couple of sentences? I find your posts long-winded and boring, but I'll give it a shot if you can break it down a little.

Im realy doubting your literacy.  I think I broke it down as much as possible when I said in one line (which you quoted btw but never responded to) "Simply put, give me an example of a non promotional strategy working, or give me a benefit to it.  No publicitly will not cause publicity.  It just wreaks of defeat"

If reading a paragraph is too much for you, how about you just read that.

1) The target demo is probably not 10-18 but 18 - 25.

2) You're hearing on radio, mtv, print media, etc the way GnR is going to let the world know an album is out.

3) Why do 15 year old kids buy music?  Because a) their friends like it and push it word of mouth or b) they hear it on the radio and like it or c) they hear about it on tv, on the radio, or read about it in a magazine and think the tracks sound cool.

Honestly, no matter how many billboards, no matter how many radio spots, no matter how many MTV ads are run....GnR isn't going to compel anyone to buy CD, who is not already a fan.  CD is, in many cases, like a punchline to some bad joke.  The only way they're going to escape that is by actually releasing it.  After that's done they can compel people to buy it by letting them either sample it in various ways on the radio, on tv...whatever.

Well, Appetite for Destruction comes to mind...

It had little to no promo on release.

It had little to no airplay at release.

All that built up over it's first 2 or 3 weeks after release and built even futher from week to week and month to month.

Groundswell promotion DOES work.  If it didn't, every debut band would fail.

As for the press....yes, debuting at 55 might cause some stir.  But positive press reviews would likely stem that.

No one denies their are risks to this strategy and that it's unorthodox.  But there are risks to every strategy and, given the perception of CD (that it will never, ever come out, etc).....risky and unorthodox may just be the best bet.

It's perfect that you mis-spelled "really" in the sentence questioning my literacy. You're a real credit to yourself. Pilferk's example of AFD is great, and very appropos, but I could name any number of other bands that took off without a ton of publicity - Alice in Chains, Metallica, Jane's Addiction, Primus, U2, Modest Mouse, to name just a few. None of those bands had even close to the publicity that Guns have gotten this year by touring high profile venues in Europe(RIR, etc), having Axl appear at the VMA's(presenting and being interviewed), having Rolling Stone interview Axl at the Korn release party, and selling out a show at Madison Square Garden. If that's not publicity my vocabulary is weaker than I thought.

dude are you insane??? cds are 17 dollars at best buy!!!!?! since when?? every new release is $9.99 the week it comes out....some are even $7.99 the week they come out....what best buy do you go to?

as a normal teenage rock fan I would def' not buy this album. Let me tell you what we ( teenagers of this generation ) see CD as

 A group of musicians who have little to no emotion in their playing who just jam out to a bunch of classic songs with a lead singer who is trying too hard to make an impact on music.